TSLA Tesla, Inc.
bearish · high conviction 2/3 calls correct ↓ $364.20 +11.78 (+3.3%) +3.2% since callCurrent filing states approximate 1.66 million vehicles produced and 1.64 million delivered in 2025, down from 1.773 million produced and 1.789 million delivered in 2024 in prior filing. Also, current filing notes a refresh of vehicle lineup with the new Model Y and additional Model 3 and Model Y variants launched in 2025, while prior filing listed Cybertruck active and several other models in development.
The current filing explains tariff impacts having a relatively larger effect on energy generation and storage business compared to automotive business, and mentions more uncertainty due to rapidly evolving trade and fiscal policy. It also references changes in OBBBA impacting tax credits for electric vehicles, impacting demand, which was not present in the previous year's narrative.
The current filing projects capital expenditures exceeding $20 billion in 2026, driven by AI initiatives including compute infrastructure and data centers expansion, manufacturing and R&D production lines and AI-enabled asset fleets, reflecting a significant increase from prior filing projections of $11 billion+ in 2025 and subsequent years.
In the 2026 filing, 2025 revenues are $94.83 billion, down $2.86 billion (3%) from 2024, whereas in prior filing, 2024 revenues were $97.69 billion, up $0.92 billion (1%) from 2023. Also, net income attributable to common stockholders decreased to $3.79 billion in 2025 vs $7.09 billion in 2024 with prior year's drop affected heavily by tax allowance release. This indicates a material revenue decrease and profit decline.
The current filing adds focus on bringing artificial intelligence into real world through products and services like FSD (Supervised) and Robotaxi, including developing AI robots such as Optimus. It highlights expansion and refinement of Robotaxi service after its June 2025 launch, which were not mentioned in the prior filing.
The current filing broadens the discussion by including regulatory scrutiny under NHTSA's Standing General Order for vehicles with advanced driver assistance or autonomous systems, and specific mention of Robotaxi collisions, which were less detailed previously.
The current filing elaborates on cybersecurity risks, including significant supply chain attacks and related impacts on service providers' systems, and the limitations in monitoring service providers' security measures, increasing the scope and complexity beyond the prior filing's description.
The current filing briefly discusses the use of blockchain-based tokens in customer financing programs as part of vehicle and energy system sales, adding complexity to financing risk which was not described in the prior filing.
The current filing introduces risks related to elevated import tariffs and retaliatory export controls impacting costs and availability of certain technologies or components, tied explicitly to the 2025 changes in U.S. trade policies, a detail absent in the prior filing.
Factor Model
net -4.1 6.4 / 10Tesla stock pressured by delivery shortfall, capex surge
Watch: Q1 earnings on April 22 to assess Tesla's inventory control and cash flow amid aggressive capex.
Full analysis
Tesla's stock is down 23% YTD amid concerns over a large $20B capex plan and a potential $3B cash flow deficit from a costly Terafab chip factory. Q1 deliveries came in at 358,023 units, missing estimates and causing a 50,000 vehicle inventory buildup. China sales declined with a 6% delivery increase falling below consensus and energy storage deployments missing forecasts. However, Tesla gained Dutch FSD approval signaling gradual tech progress.
The delivery miss and heavy spending strain near-term finances and risk further investor confidence erosion despite long-term AI and autonomous driving potential.
All 21 daily readings
Event Predictions
Tesla likely to miss again; downside risk outweighs reset expectations
Thesis
Tesla has missed 3 of last 4 quarters with deteriorating surprise momentum (-34.9% in Q1 vs +11.0% in Q4), and Q1 2026 deliveries face headwinds ("50,000 vehicle elephant in the room"). Insiders have sold $256.6M with zero buys, analysts have revised estimates down 3.9%, and the stock is already down 27.98% from highs. While sell-the-news probability is low (35%) due to reset expectations, the consistent miss pattern and insider selling suggest another earnings disappointment is likely, with limited upside cushion at current valuation (P/E 333.9).
Evidence
7 older signals
Fundamentals & Data ▾
Recent transactions
full analysis
Current filing states approximate 1.66 million vehicles produced and 1.64 million delivered in 2025, down from 1.773 million produced and 1.789 million delivered in 2024 in prior filing. Also, current filing notes a refresh of vehicle lineup with the new Model Y and additional Model 3 and Model Y variants launched in 2025, while prior filing listed Cybertruck active and several other models in development.
full analysis
The current filing explains tariff impacts having a relatively larger effect on energy generation and storage business compared to automotive business, and mentions more uncertainty due to rapidly evolving trade and fiscal policy. It also references changes in OBBBA impacting tax credits for electric vehicles, impacting demand, which was not present in the previous year's narrative.
full analysis
The current filing projects capital expenditures exceeding $20 billion in 2026, driven by AI initiatives including compute infrastructure and data centers expansion, manufacturing and R&D production lines and AI-enabled asset fleets, reflecting a significant increase from prior filing projections of $11 billion+ in 2025 and subsequent years.
full analysis
In the 2026 filing, 2025 revenues are $94.83 billion, down $2.86 billion (3%) from 2024, whereas in prior filing, 2024 revenues were $97.69 billion, up $0.92 billion (1%) from 2023. Also, net income attributable to common stockholders decreased to $3.79 billion in 2025 vs $7.09 billion in 2024 with prior year's drop affected heavily by tax allowance release. This indicates a material revenue decrease and profit decline.
full analysis
The current filing adds focus on bringing artificial intelligence into real world through products and services like FSD (Supervised) and Robotaxi, including developing AI robots such as Optimus. It highlights expansion and refinement of Robotaxi service after its June 2025 launch, which were not mentioned in the prior filing.
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Track Record (2/3 correct) ▾
Direction History
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