TSLA Tesla, Inc.

bullish 2/5 shifts correct ↓ $435.79 -6.31 (-1.4%)
Mkt Cap $1.6T P/E 399.8 fwd 173.6 52wk $273.21 - $498.83 Earnings missing 8h ago
What We Found Primary source analysis others skip
SEC Filing Changes
MEDIUM
LANGUAGE CHANGES

Current filing states approximate 1.66 million vehicles produced and 1.64 million delivered in 2025, down from 1.773 million produced and 1.789 million delivered in 2024 in prior filing. Also, current filing notes a refresh of vehicle lineup with the new Model Y and additional Model 3 and Model Y variants launched in 2025, while prior filing listed Cybertruck active and several other models in development.

10-K · Filed 2026-01-29
MEDIUM
LANGUAGE CHANGES

The current filing explains tariff impacts having a relatively larger effect on energy generation and storage business compared to automotive business, and mentions more uncertainty due to rapidly evolving trade and fiscal policy. It also references changes in OBBBA impacting tax credits for electric vehicles, impacting demand, which was not present in the previous year's narrative.

10-K · Filed 2026-01-29
HIGH
NEW ITEMS ADDED

The current filing projects capital expenditures exceeding $20 billion in 2026, driven by AI initiatives including compute infrastructure and data centers expansion, manufacturing and R&D production lines and AI-enabled asset fleets, reflecting a significant increase from prior filing projections of $11 billion+ in 2025 and subsequent years.

10-K · Filed 2026-01-29
HIGH
LANGUAGE CHANGES

In the 2026 filing, 2025 revenues are $94.83 billion, down $2.86 billion (3%) from 2024, whereas in prior filing, 2024 revenues were $97.69 billion, up $0.92 billion (1%) from 2023. Also, net income attributable to common stockholders decreased to $3.79 billion in 2025 vs $7.09 billion in 2024 with prior year's drop affected heavily by tax allowance release. This indicates a material revenue decrease and profit decline.

10-K · Filed 2026-01-29
HIGH
NEW ITEMS ADDED

The current filing adds focus on bringing artificial intelligence into real world through products and services like FSD (Supervised) and Robotaxi, including developing AI robots such as Optimus. It highlights expansion and refinement of Robotaxi service after its June 2025 launch, which were not mentioned in the prior filing.

10-K · Filed 2026-01-29
MEDIUM
Material language changes

The current filing broadens the discussion by including regulatory scrutiny under NHTSA's Standing General Order for vehicles with advanced driver assistance or autonomous systems, and specific mention of Robotaxi collisions, which were less detailed previously.

10-K · Filed 2026-01-29
MEDIUM
Material language changes

The current filing elaborates on cybersecurity risks, including significant supply chain attacks and related impacts on service providers' systems, and the limitations in monitoring service providers' security measures, increasing the scope and complexity beyond the prior filing's description.

10-K · Filed 2026-01-29
MEDIUM
New items added

The current filing briefly discusses the use of blockchain-based tokens in customer financing programs as part of vehicle and energy system sales, adding complexity to financing risk which was not described in the prior filing.

10-K · Filed 2026-01-29
HIGH
New items added

The current filing introduces risks related to elevated import tariffs and retaliatory export controls impacting costs and availability of certain technologies or components, tied explicitly to the 2025 changes in U.S. trade policies, a detail absent in the prior filing.

10-K · Filed 2026-01-29
Material Events (8-K)
8-K
Compensatory Arrangement

Tesla's shareholders approved the amended 2019 Equity Incentive Plan and a performance-based restricted stock award for Elon Musk, CEO, during the 2025 Annual Meeting. The Equity Incentive Plan update...

Filed 2025-11-07 · Elon Musk, Chief Executive Officer
8-K
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement

Tesla, Inc. updated its form of Indemnification Agreement and entered into new agreements with its directors and executive officers. The agreements provide for indemnification and advancement of expen...

Filed 2025-09-05 · directors, executive officers
8-K
Compensatory arrangement - restricted stock award

Tesla's Board of Directors approved a compensatory arrangement awarding Elon Musk, CEO, 96 million shares of restricted stock under the 2019 Equity Incentive Plan. The award vests on the second annive...

Filed 2025-08-04 · Elon Musk, CEO, Robyn Denholm, Director
8-K
Appointment to Board of Directors and Audit Committee $124,000 (compensation of son-in-law, non-executive employee…

John R. (Jack) Hartung has been appointed to Tesla's Board of Directors and the Audit Committee, effective June 1, 2025. He has waived cash and equity compensation for the time being. No related party...

Filed 2025-05-16 · John R. (Jack) Hartung
Insider selling: $11,335,390 sold by 2 insiders (30d)
Factor divergence: DIVERGENCE: price_momentum bullish vs analyst_revisions, filing_risk_change bearish
Est. revisions: +1.7% (7 up, 14 down in 30d)
Factor Model (net -1.2)

Factor Model

net -1.2 3.3 / 10
Est. Revisions
+0.1
Insider Activity
+0.0
Momentum
+0.9
Analyst Rev.
-0.6
Narrative Gap
+0.0
Filing Risk
+9.0

Tesla FSD expands but safety concerns mount

Watch: SpaceX IPO timing, NHTSA FSD investigation outcomes, and European FSD approvals will steer Tesla’s valuation catalysts.

Tesla's Full Self-Driving software rolled out in Lithuania, the second EU country approving it, while Belgium and Greece prepare authorization. European sales surged 67% in April and 62% year-to-date, reinforcing growth. Former AI trainers distrust FSD safety amid NHTSA investigations and lawsuits potentially costing $1-5 billion. Elon Musk's Tesla-SpaceX merger faces skepticism over dilution risk and valuation cuts despite merger optimism from Jim Cramer.

Tesla’s expanding FSD presence and strong European sales point to autonomous and EV growth, but safety doubts and merger skepticism risk investor confidence and valuation support.

Evidence

7 older signals
Fundamentals & Data ▾
Tesla, Inc. Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers
Mkt Cap
$1.6T
P/E
399.8 fwd 173.6
Beta
1.79
52w Range
$273.21 - $498.83
Short Interest
75.2M 2.25%
Days to Cover
1.2 +6%
Technicals uptrend
vs 20d MA
+3.4%
vs 50d MA
+11.2%
from 52w Hi
-11.0%
Vol (20d)
38%
1w return
+4.3%
1m return
+16.9%
3m return
+8.3%
Vol ratio
0.8x
Insiders
selling 0B / 13S
Analysts
bullish 1 up / 0 down
Earnings
missing 1B / 3M
EPS Estimate
$0.45 +1.7% 30d 7up / 14dn
Est. Dispersion
72% 24 analysts
Analyst Target
$412 $123 - $600
Options P/C
0.52 15C / 16P unusual
Insider Cluster
strong sell 0B / 2S
Fund Convergence
strong Citadel, D.E. Shaw, Elliott, Coatue, Two Sigma
Financials
Revenue
$22.4B +16% YoY
FCF
$1.4B
Gross Margin
21%
Op Margin
4%
Momentum: accelerating
Top Holders
Citadel $34.5B
D.E. Shaw $4.6B
Elliott $764M
Coatue $738M
Two Sigma $625M
Recent Filings & Data
insider trade 4
net selling · $11,335,390 sold
2 insiders · 4 transactions (30d)
Recent transactions
WILSON - THOMPSON KATHLEEN · sell · $9,985,390
TANEJA VAIBHAV · exercise · $54,880
TANEJA VAIBHAV · sell · $1,350,000
WILSON - THOMPSON KATHLEEN · exercise · $613,811
filing change 9
MEDIUM LANGUAGE CHANGES: Changes in production and delivery volumes and vehicle models mentioned.
full analysis

Current filing states approximate 1.66 million vehicles produced and 1.64 million delivered in 2025, down from 1.773 million produced and 1.789 million delivered in 2024 in prior filing. Also, current filing notes a refresh of vehicle lineup with the new Model Y and additional Model 3 and Model Y variants launched in 2025, while prior filing listed Cybertruck active and several other models in development.

MEDIUM LANGUAGE CHANGES: Shifts in discussion of tariff and trade policy risks and effects on supply chain and costs.
full analysis

The current filing explains tariff impacts having a relatively larger effect on energy generation and storage business compared to automotive business, and mentions more uncertainty due to rapidly evolving trade and fiscal policy. It also references changes in OBBBA impacting tax credits for electric vehicles, impacting demand, which was not present in the previous year's narrative.

HIGH NEW ITEMS ADDED: Increased focus and detailed plans for AI initiatives and capital expenditures in 2026.
full analysis

The current filing projects capital expenditures exceeding $20 billion in 2026, driven by AI initiatives including compute infrastructure and data centers expansion, manufacturing and R&D production lines and AI-enabled asset fleets, reflecting a significant increase from prior filing projections of $11 billion+ in 2025 and subsequent years.

HIGH LANGUAGE CHANGES: Change in revenue and net income results between 2025 and 2024 compared to 2024 and 2023.
full analysis

In the 2026 filing, 2025 revenues are $94.83 billion, down $2.86 billion (3%) from 2024, whereas in prior filing, 2024 revenues were $97.69 billion, up $0.92 billion (1%) from 2023. Also, net income attributable to common stockholders decreased to $3.79 billion in 2025 vs $7.09 billion in 2024 with prior year's drop affected heavily by tax allowance release. This indicates a material revenue decrease and profit decline.

HIGH NEW ITEMS ADDED: Introduction of a new focus on Artificial Intelligence and Robotaxi service after June 2025 launch.
full analysis

The current filing adds focus on bringing artificial intelligence into real world through products and services like FSD (Supervised) and Robotaxi, including developing AI robots such as Optimus. It highlights expansion and refinement of Robotaxi service after its June 2025 launch, which were not mentioned in the prior filing.

4 more
MEDIUM Broader details on product liability claims and regulatory scrutiny related to autonomous driving te...
MEDIUM Expanded and more detailed description of cybersecurity risks and incidents.
MEDIUM Explanation of blockchain-based token economy mechanisms in financing programs.
HIGH Specific mention of U.S. trade policy alterations in 2025 affecting supply chain costs.
material event 4

Tesla's shareholders approved the amended 2019 Equity Incentive Plan and a performance-based restricted stock award for Elon Musk, CEO, during the 2025 Annual Meeting. The Equity Incentive Plan update and CEO award are compensatory arrangements. SEC↗

Tesla, Inc. updated its form of Indemnification Agreement and entered into new agreements with its directors and executive officers. The agreements provide for indemnification and advancement of expenses to these Indemnitees to the fullest extent permitted by Texas law and continued coverage under the company's directors and officers insurance policies. SEC↗

Tesla's Board of Directors approved a compensatory arrangement awarding Elon Musk, CEO, 96 million shares of restricted stock under the 2019 Equity Incentive Plan. The award vests on the second anniversary of August 3, 2025, contingent on Musk's continued service in key executive roles. The shares will be issued after the expiration of the antitrust waiting period under the HSR Act. The award was recommended by a special committee of independent directors and approved with Musk and his brother Kimbal Musk recused. The award could be forfeited if a specified legal judgment against Musk becomes final. SEC↗

John R. (Jack) Hartung has been appointed to Tesla's Board of Directors and the Audit Committee, effective June 1, 2025. He has waived cash and equity compensation for the time being. No related party transactions requiring disclosure, aside from a son-in-law of Mr. Hartung who is a Tesla Service Technician. SEC↗

Track Record (2/5 correct) ▾

Direction History

2/5 correct at 5 days
2026-05-20 bearish +6.0%
2026-04-30 bearish +7.9%
2026-04-05 bearish -3.2%
2026-03-09 bearish -0.8%
2026-03-07 bullish -1.4%
15 signals · latest 9h ago

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