TPL Texas Pacific Land Corporation

bullish · high conviction track record → $434.82 +12.24 (+2.9%)
Get emailed when TPL changes direction
Mkt Cap $30B P/E 62.4 fwd 5.9 52wk $269.23 - $547.20 Earnings 2026-05-06 47d ago
Insider selling: $1,265,346 sold by 12 insiders (30d)
Est. revisions: +7.6% (1 up, 0 down in 30d)
Backed by structured data (insider trades, analyst ratings, or filings)
Factor Model (net +2.0)

Factor Model

net +2.0 3.9 / 10
Est. Revisions
+0.5
Insider Activity
+0.0
Momentum
+0.0
Analyst Rev.
+1.0
Narrative Gap
+0.0

KeyBanc sees 88% upside in TPL as AI landlord

Watch: Watch for TPL to announce concrete partnerships on its 900k acres for data centers, power plants, or water infrastructure. Such deals would validate the AI thesis and justify the $659 target. Monitor quarterly revenue growth momentum and whether the stock sustains above $525 or reverts to traditional energy multiples if the data center narrative fails to materialize.

Texas Pacific Land crushed Q4 2025 earnings with $211M revenue, up 13.6% YoY and beating estimates by $7M—driving a 15.63% stock surge in February. KeyBanc analyst Tim Rezvan turbo-charged the bullish case by reframing TPL as an AI infrastructure play, lifting his price target from $350 to $659 (88% upside) on the thesis that TPL's ~900k acres can attract data center and power/water projects beyond legacy oil and gas royalties. Management reinforced confidence with a 12.5% dividend increase to $0.60/share on February 19, signaling sustained cash generation even as oil prices remain subdued at $65/barrel versus $95 in 2022.

TPL has flipped from a commodity-dependent royalty play into a structural beneficiary of AI infrastructure buildout. The 88% price target represents Wall Street's growing appetite for real estate exposure to data center expansion—a secular tailwind decoupled from oil price cycles. With earnings already beating and free cash flow supporting a growing dividend, TPL has de-risked the story: the traditional energy business is profitable with depressed commodity prices, and the AI upside is optionality.

Our Trades

Full track record →
+30.2%

Long Call · Quick Draw

7d held
2026-04-20
+49.3%

Long Call · Wide Runner

7d held
2026-04-17
+24.2%

Long Call · The Indexer

3d held
2026-04-16
+6.3%

Long Call · The Consensus

4d held
2026-04-15
+24.6%

Long Call · Risk Manager

3d held
2026-04-14

Evidence

1d ago Insider buy by HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. (TPL): $424
4d ago Insider buy by HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. (TPL): $419
5d ago Insider buy by HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. (TPL): $414
6d ago Insider buy by HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. (TPL): $415
7d ago Insider buy by HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. (TPL): $407
8d ago Insider buy by HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. (TPL): $337
8d ago Insider buy by HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. (TPL): $346
8d ago Insider buy by HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. (TPL): $355
7 older signals
8d ago Insider buy by HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. (TPL): $351
8d ago Insider buy by HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. (TPL): $340
8d ago Insider buy by HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. (TPL): $342
8d ago Insider buy by HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. (TPL): $350
8d ago Insider buy by HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. (TPL): $346
8d ago Insider buy by HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. (TPL): $343
8d ago Insider buy by HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. (TPL): $334
Fundamentals & Data ▾
Texas Pacific Land Corporation Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Mkt Cap
$30B
P/E
62.4 fwd 5.9
Beta
0.77
Div Yield
57.00%
52w Range
$269.23 - $547.20
Short Interest
3.9M 8.21%
Days to Cover
7.7 -18%
Technicals downtrend
from 52w Hi
-3.3%
1w return
+4.3%
Insiders
buying 20B / 0S
EPS Estimate
$2.02 +7.6% 30d 1up / 0dn
Est. Dispersion
1% 2 analysts
Analyst Target
$446 $252 - $639
Options P/C
0.44
Insider Cluster
sell cluster 1B / 2S
Financials
Revenue
$212M +14% YoY
FCF
$-366M
Gross Margin
81%
Op Margin
70%
Momentum: decelerating
Recent Filings & Data
insider trade 153
net selling · $1,265,346 sold · $546,314 bought
12 insiders · 153 transactions (30d)
Recent transactions
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $934
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $1,347
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $443
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $443
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $470
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $494
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $1,044
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $538
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $535
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $529
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $534
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $527
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $532
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $525
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $525
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $529
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $532
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $523
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $527
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $527
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $526
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $529
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $530
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $524
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $517
EPPS DONNA E · buy · $456,853
EPPS DONNA E · sell · $456,522
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $520
BUFFINGTON STEPHANIE · sell · $808,824
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $520
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $504
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $469
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $435
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $426
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $426
DOBBS MICHEAL W · other
STEDDUM CHRIS · other
BUFFINGTON STEPHANIE · other
GLOVER TYLER · other
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $408
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $388
DOBBS MICHEAL W · award
DOBBS MICHEAL W · other
STEDDUM CHRIS · award
STEDDUM CHRIS · other
BUFFINGTON STEPHANIE · other
GLOVER TYLER · award
GLOVER TYLER · other
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $372
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $342
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $345
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $337
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $346
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $355
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $351
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $340
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $342
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $350
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $346
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $343
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $334
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $328
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $330
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $330
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $323
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $312
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $309
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $292
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $286
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $297
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $295
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · award
EPPS DONNA E · award
KURZ KARL F · award
BEST RHYS J · award
COOK DONALD G · award
DUGANIER BARBARA J. · award
WOUNG-CHAPMAN MARGUERITE · award
ROOSA ROBERT M. · award
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $289
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $288
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $294
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $294
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $285
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $295
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $892
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $925
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $897
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $902
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $880
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $822
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $819
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $881
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $877
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $870
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $896
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $914
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $922
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $912
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $876
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $869
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $867
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $867
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $863
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $853
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $880
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $895
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $919
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $899
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $914
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $1,008
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $998
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $1,021
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $996
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $1,968
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $993
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $944
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $914
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $912
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $933
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $402
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $941
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $912
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $925
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $934
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $949
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $939
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $936
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $939
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $945
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $929
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $935
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $924
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $883
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $1,786
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $936
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $935
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $964
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $950
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $971
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $967
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $945
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $914
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $948
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $929
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $955
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $897
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $864
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $407
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $415
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $414
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $419
HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C. · buy · $424
ae trade 6
1 more
15 signals · latest 1d ago

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