SPOT Spotify Technology S.A.

bearish · high conviction SHIFT track record → $518.00 +2.06 (+0.4%)
Get emailed when SPOT changes direction
Mkt Cap $107B P/E 42.2 fwd 26.9 52wk $405.00 - $785.00 Earnings 2026-04-28 4h ago
Insider selling: $12,471,436 sold by 2 insiders (30d)
Est. revisions: +3.3% (4 up, 0 down in 30d)
Factor Model (net +1.7)

Factor Model

net +1.7 4.2 / 10
Est. Revisions
+0.2
Insider Activity
+0.0
Momentum
+0.0
Analyst Rev.
+1.0
Narrative Gap
+0.0

Spotify slides 16.6% amid AI and margin worries

Watch: Monitor Q1 earnings for ad revenue trends and AI's tangible impact on user engagement to gauge recovery potential.

Spotify's stock dropped 16.6% in Q1 to $518, reflecting investor concern over AI disrupting subscriber growth and delayed margin expansion. The company holds a market cap of $106.65B with 9.05% one-month return but is down 13.34% over 12 months. Insider selling continues amid mixed analyst sentiment and a downtrend in price technicals.

Investor fears on AI's impact and uncertain margin timing suggest short-term risks despite Spotify's long-term user growth and revenue acceleration.

Our Trades

Full track record →
+82.0%

Long Call · Trail Blazer

7d held
2026-04-17
+17.3%

Long Call · Portfolio Mirror

7d held
2026-04-16
+52.8%

Long Call · Quick Draw

7d held
2026-04-15
+12.9%

Long Call · Trail Blazer

7d held
2026-04-13
+13.0%

Long Call · Risk Manager

3d held
2026-04-12

Evidence

4h ago Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT) Slid by 16.6% in Q1 Due to Concerns Over Impact of AI yahoo-finance
12d ago Keybanc main SPOT: Overweight → Overweight
13d ago Wells Fargo main SPOT: Overweight → Overweight
16d ago Spotify set for strong Q1 report on revenue, margin gains yahoo-finance
28d ago Spotify (SPOT) Fell Due to Concerns Around Pricing Actions yahoo-finance
48d ago Will Spotify (SPOT) be Able to Deliver More Than 20% Annual Free Cash Flow Growth? yahoo-finance
53d ago Spotify (SPOT) was Hurt by Continued Near-Term Advertising Weakness yahoo-finance
61d ago Spotify (SPOT) was Hurt by Continued Near-Term Advertising Weakness yahoo-finance
Fundamentals & Data ▾
Spotify Technology S.A. Communication Services · Internet Content & Information
Mkt Cap
$107B
P/E
42.2 fwd 26.9
Beta
1.70
52w Range
$405.00 - $785.00
Short Interest
6.3M 4.01%
Days to Cover
4.1 -2%
Technicals downtrend
from 52w Hi
-3.5%
1w return
-3.5%
Insiders
selling 0B / 2S
Analysts
mixed
EPS Estimate
$2.95 +3.3% 30d 4up / 0dn
Est. Dispersion
30% 14 analysts
Analyst Target
$643 $415 - $802
Options P/C
0.60
Insider Cluster
strong sell 0B / 2S
Fund Convergence
strong Coatue, Citadel, Tiger Global, D.E. Shaw, Renaissance
Financials
Revenue
$4.5B +7% YoY
FCF
$834M
Gross Margin
33%
Op Margin
16%
Momentum: accelerating
Top Holders
Coatue $1.4B
Citadel $1.4B
Tiger Global $733M
D.E. Shaw $522M
Renaissance $344M
Recent Filings & Data
insider trade 4
net selling · $12,471,436 sold
2 insiders · 4 transactions (30d)
Recent transactions
NORSTROM ALEX · sell · $2,606,629
NORSTROM ALEX · exercise · $822,195
SODERSTROM GUSTAV STIG VICTOR · sell · $9,864,807
SODERSTROM GUSTAV STIG VICTOR · exercise · $3,150,991
ae trade 10
5 more
8 signals · latest 4h ago

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