SMCI Super Micro Computer, Inc.

bullish · high conviction track record → $46.09 +4.79 (+11.6%)
Mkt Cap $28B P/E 24.3 fwd 14.3 52wk $19.48 - $62.36 Earnings mixed 7h ago
Avoided topics on last call (2025Q1): auditor resignation details, 10-K filing delay specifics, annual revenue guidance, customer concentration details, CFO/Auditor timeline specifics
What We Found Primary source analysis others skip
Material Events (8-K)
8-K
Compensatory arrangement - Equity Incentive Plan amendment

Super Micro Computer, Inc. amended and restated its 2020 Equity and Incentive Compensation Plan. The plan allows granting awards to non-employee directors, officers, employees, and consultants of the ...

Filed 2026-04-20
8-K
Departure and Compliance Appointment Bearish

Super Micro Computer, Inc. announced that three individuals associated with the Company—Yih-Shyan "Wally" Liaw (Senior Vice President of Business Development and Board member), Ruei-Tsang "Steven" Cha...

Filed 2026-03-20 · Yih-Shyan "Wally" Liaw, Ruei-Tsang "Steven" Chang
8-K
Amendment to Credit Agreement Bullish

Super Micro Computer, Inc. entered into an Amendment #1 to its Credit Agreement dated December 29, 2025, with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. as the administrative agent. The Amendment changes the Company's...

Filed 2026-01-29 · Super Micro Computer, Inc., JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A.
8-K
Loan Facilities Agreement US$2,000,000,000

Super Micro Computer, Inc. Taiwan entered into a revolving loan facilities agreement dated January 21, 2026, involving multiple banks and financial institutions. The agreement provides for up to US$2 ...

Filed 2026-01-26 · Super Micro Computer, Inc. Taiwan, CTBC Bank Co., Ltd.
Factor divergence: DIVERGENCE: estimate_revisions, analyst_revisions bullish vs price_momentum bearish
Est. revisions: +27.0% (14 up, 0 down in 30d)
Backed by structured data (insider trades, analyst ratings, or filings)
Factor Model (net +2.0)

Factor Model

net +2.0 4.1 / 10
Est. Revisions
+0.9
Insider Activity
+0.0
Momentum
-1.0
Analyst Rev.
+1.0
Narrative Gap
+0.0

SMCI seizes servers, shares rally on AI demand

Watch: Next quarterly earnings will test if SMCI can sustain margin improvements while scaling AI server production and fend off competitive pressures.

SMCI collaborated with Taiwanese authorities to arrest 3 suspects and seize 50 illegally exported AI servers, aiding reputational recovery. Shares jumped 8.14% on May 28 and 11.6% on May 29, driven by AI server demand and tech sector optimism. Short interest rose slightly to 18.0% of float, signaling some bearish bets amid strong YTD rally of 55.72%.

The law enforcement action supports channel control and trust, reinforcing SMCI's growth potential in the AI infrastructure market despite some investor caution.

+100.7%

Long Call · True Believer — SMCI: earnings estimates raised 27%; analyst targets imply 18% upside; strong institutional convergence; IE rates bullis

7d · 2026-05-26
+12.1%

Long Call · Risk Manager — SMCI: earnings estimates raised 27%; analyst targets imply 15% upside; moderate institutional convergence; IE rates bull

4d · 2026-05-18
+12.1%

Long Call · True Believer — SMCI: earnings estimates raised 27%; analyst targets imply 15% upside; moderate institutional convergence; IE rates bull

4d · 2026-05-18
-5.7%

Long Call · Risk Manager — SMCI: earnings estimates raised 27%; analyst targets imply 12% upside; moderate institutional convergence; IE rates bull

5d · 2026-05-18
-5.7%

Long Call · True Believer — SMCI: earnings estimates raised 27%; analyst targets imply 12% upside; moderate institutional convergence; IE rates bull

5d · 2026-05-18

Evidence

7 older signals
Fundamentals & Data ▾
Super Micro Computer, Inc. Technology · Computer Hardware
Mkt Cap
$28B
P/E
24.3 fwd 14.3
Beta
1.68
52w Range
$19.48 - $62.36
Short Interest
81.2M 18.05%
Days to Cover
2.2 -6%
Technicals uptrend
vs 20d MA
+36.5%
vs 50d MA
+60.8%
from 52w Hi
-21.5%
Vol (20d)
108%
1w return
+37.8%
1m return
+75.1%
3m return
+42.3%
Vol ratio
1.3x
Insiders
selling 0B / 6S
Earnings
mixed 2B / 2M
EPS Estimate
$0.71 +27.0% 30d 14up / 0dn
Est. Dispersion
14% 16 analysts
Analyst Target
$37 $15 - $58
Options P/C
0.30 6C / 5P unusual
Fund Convergence
strong Citadel, D.E. Shaw, Renaissance
Financials
Revenue
$10.2B +123% YoY
FCF
$-6.7B
Gross Margin
10%
Op Margin
6%
Momentum: decelerating
Top Holders
Citadel $814M
D.E. Shaw $5M
Renaissance $1M
Recent Filings & Data
insider trade 3
net selling
3 insiders · 3 transactions (30d)
Recent transactions
LIANG CHARLES · other
XIAO JIN · other
LIU LIANG CHIU-CHU SARA · other
material event 9

Super Micro Computer, Inc. amended and restated its 2020 Equity and Incentive Compensation Plan. The plan allows granting awards to non-employee directors, officers, employees, and consultants of the company and its subsidiaries. It aims to incentivize and reward service or performance through various equity and cash awards. There are no specific departures or individual names involved disclosed in this filing text. Dollar amounts related to the plan are not specified in the provided excerpt. Overall, this is a compensatory arrangement, reflecting a neutral impact on the stock. SEC↗

Super Micro Computer, Inc. announced that three individuals associated with the Company—Yih-Shyan "Wally" Liaw (Senior Vice President of Business Development and Board member), Ruei-Tsang "Steven" Chang (sales manager in Taiwan), and contractor Ting-Wei "Willy" Sun—were indicted for an alleged conspiracy to commit export-control violations. The Company placed the two employees on administrative leave, terminated the contractor, and Mr. Liaw resigned from the Board, not due to disagreement with the Company. DeAnna Luna was appointed acting Chief Compliance Officer. The Company is not a defendant and is cooperating with the investigation. SEC↗

Super Micro Computer, Inc. entered into an Amendment #1 to its Credit Agreement dated December 29, 2025, with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. as the administrative agent. The Amendment changes the Company's fiscal year-end date from December 31 to June 30 and decreases the initial Applicable Margin rate on loans from Pricing Level III (1.75% for Term Benchmark Loans and 0.75% for Base Rate Loans) to Pricing Level I (1.25% for Term Benchmark Loans and 0.25% for Base Rate Loans). SEC↗

Super Micro Computer, Inc. Taiwan entered into a revolving loan facilities agreement dated January 21, 2026, involving multiple banks and financial institutions. The agreement provides for up to US$2 billion in revolving loan facilities with CTBC Bank Co., Ltd., Credit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank (Taipei Branch), and E.SUN Commercial Bank as mandated lead arrangers and bookrunners. The loan is intended for general corporate purposes under specified terms and conditions. SEC↗

SMCI entered into a Credit Agreement dated December 29, 2025, involving various lenders and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. as Administrative Agent, along with other financial institutions as lead arrangers and agents. The agreement establishes terms for revolving credit commitments, letters of credit, interest rates, borrowing, prepayment, and other loan facility details. SEC↗

4 more
George Kao, Senior Vice President of Operations at Super Micro Computer, Inc., w
Super Micro Computer, Inc. entered into a Receivables Purchase Agreement dated J
Super Micro Computer, Inc. completed the sale of $2.3 billion aggregate principa
Super Micro Computer, Inc. has adopted the Amended and Restated 2020 Equity and
Transcript Analysis (2025Q1) ▾

Management demonstrates moderate confidence and specificity but frequently avoids key topics related to audit and financial filing issues, with noticeable hedging and a slight drop in confidence in the Q&A compared to prepared remarks.

Hedging
0.52
Confidence
0.63
Specificity
0.55
Active Voice
0.72
Prepared vs Q&A Gap
-0.15
Question Avoidance
8 (high)
Avoided Topics
auditor resignation details 10-K filing delay specifics annual revenue guidance customer concentration details CFO/Auditor timeline specifics
Key Language Changes
  • Strong repeated disclaimers about auditor resignation and filing delays
  • Emphasis on investigation by Special Committee with no evidence of fraud
  • Frequent deferral or refusal to answer questions on audit and filing matters
  • Increased focus on technology readiness and market positioning as positive counterbalance
  • Avoidance of explicit annual guidance despite repeated probing
  • Reinforcement of strong NVIDIA relationship as a reassurance against supply concerns
Track Record (0/1 correct) ▾

Direction History

0/1 correct at 5 days
2026-05-08 bullish -12.2%
15 signals · latest 2h ago

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