Factor Model (net +1.2)
Factor Model
net +1.2 2.2 / 10Revenue beats guidance, dividend raised 25%
Watch: Monitor Q1 2026 results for whether the African expansion and UK launch maintain momentum, and track customer retention as competition intensifies in regulated markets. The FY2026 guidance — revenue over $2.55B and EBITDA over $680M — sets a high bar; any miss would signal slowing adoption or margin pressure.
Super Group delivered FY2025 revenue of $2.2B, up 22% YoY, with adjusted EBITDA surging 57% to $560M — driven by geographic expansion into Botswana and the UK plus 16% growth in monthly active users to 6.1M. The company also lifted its minimum annual dividend to 20 cents per share from 16 cents, signaling confidence in cash generation and shareholder returns.
This is a company executing a high-growth, high-margin playbook in an underpenetrated market. Revenue growing in the low-20s while EBITDA expands at 57% shows pricing power and operating leverage — margins are widening as scale increases. The dividend hike isn't just shareholder-friendly; it's proof management believes the earnings runway is durable enough to return cash while reinvesting for growth.
Evidence
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