PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc.

bearish 3/3 calls correct ↓ $135.70 +3.33 (+2.5%)
Mkt Cap $306B P/E 203.3 fwd 68.8 52wk $89.31 - $207.52 Earnings beating Earnings 2026-05-04 5h ago
What We Found Primary source analysis others skip
SEC Filing Changes
MEDIUM
New items added

The current filing discusses more about potential obsolescence, difficulties in software development and marketing, delays in feature and capability releases, and risks of competitors introducing superior technologies that impact the company.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-17
MEDIUM
Material language changes

Both filings discuss the credit facility with $500 million undrawn line maturing March 2027; current filing adds more explicit detail on covenants, restrictions, cross defaults, collateral and impact on liquidity if default occurs.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-17
HIGH
New items added

The current filing provides a more in-depth and updated discussion of cybersecurity risks including evolving threats, vulnerabilities in third-party products, risks of unauthorized access, and implications of operating in conflict zones with nation-state threats, compared to prior filing's more general coverage.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-17
MEDIUM
New items added

Current filing specifically states that the company and certain officers/directors were sued in class action and derivative lawsuits which could be costly and distracting, referencing Note 8; prior filing only generally mentioned such lawsuits.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-17
MEDIUM
Material language changes

Current filing adds examples of seasonality influences changing due to government spending and commercial mandates that do not follow historical purchasing patterns, potentially causing more unpredictability in revenue timing.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-17
MEDIUM
Material language changes

Both filings discuss risks around AI use, but current filing elaborates risks of AI including ethical challenges, increased cybersecurity risks, potential legal liabilities under new regulations, rapid evolution and costs related to AI development, and specific examples of how AI may increase cybersecurity threats.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-17
MEDIUM
New items added

Current filing added detailed risks and challenges about joint ventures, channel sales, partnerships, and strategic alliances including risks of conflicts of interest, regulatory reviews, and dependency on partner performance. Examples include the jointly controlled entities in Japan with SOMPO Holdings and South Korea with HD Hyundai Co. Ltd.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-17
HIGH
Dollar amounts or specificity changes

Total Remaining Deal Value in prior filing was $5.4 billion as of December 31, 2024. In current filing, it increased to $11.2 billion as of December 31, 2025, showing a significant growth in contract values, with $6.8 billion from commercial and $4.4 billion from government customers.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-17
MEDIUM
Risk Factors Summary

The prior filing states risk due to "the multi-class structure of our common stock, the Founder Voting Trust Agreement, and the Founder Voting Agreement concentrate voting power with certain stockholders..." same as current, but current filing adds "(our Founders) and their affiliates." This is a slight expansion for clarity.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-17
Insider selling: $2,438,623 sold by 1 insider (30d)
Factor divergence: DIVERGENCE: analyst_revisions bullish vs price_momentum, filing_risk_change bearish
Est. revisions: -0.2% (17 up, 0 down in 30d)
Backed by structured data (insider trades, analyst ratings, or filings)

Factor Model

net -1.3 4.6 / 10
Est. Revisions
-0.0
Insider Activity
+0.0
Momentum
-0.8
Analyst Rev.
+1.0
Narrative Gap
+0.0
Filing Risk
+9.0

Palantir's AI-driven revenue leaps 70% in Q4

Watch: Next earnings report will clarify if Palantir can sustain AI momentum and justify its lofty valuation amidst competitive pressures.

Full analysis

Palantir Technologies posted Q4 2025 revenue of $1.407 billion, up 70% year-over-year, beating estimates by 6%. It secured a $1.3 billion Pentagon contract for its AI-enabled Maven Smart System, now a program of record. Full-year 2026 revenue guidance implies 61% growth to $7.19 billion. Despite exceptional earnings and $2.27 billion free cash flow in 2025, stock dropped amid high valuation concerns and competition from Anthropic.

Palantir's robust revenue growth and fat cash flow validate its AI and government software strategy despite valuation headwinds and intensifying AI competition.

Position history (4d) bull bear neutral
2026-03-23 2026-04-12
All 4 daily readings
2026-04-12 bearish · high 8sig
2026-04-11 bearish · high 8sig
2026-04-01 bearish · high 4sig
2026-03-23 bullish · medium 5sig

Compare

Evidence

Fundamentals & Data ▾
Palantir Technologies Inc. Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Mkt Cap
$306B
P/E
203.3 fwd 68.8
Beta
1.67
52w Range
$89.31 - $207.52
Short Interest
52.6M 2.4%
Days to Cover
1.0 +2%
Technicals downtrend
vs 20d MA
-9.8%
vs 50d MA
-8.0%
from 52w Hi
-36.1%
Vol (20d)
58%
1w return
-10.5%
1m return
-13.8%
3m return
-25.4%
Vol ratio
1.5x
Insiders
selling 0B / 13S
Analysts
mixed
Earnings
beating 4B / 0M
EPS Estimate
$0.28 -0.2% 30d 17up / 0dn
Est. Dispersion
18% 22 analysts
Analyst Target
$185 $70 - $260
Options P/C
0.32 0C / 4P unusual
Insider Cluster
strong sell 1B / 9S
Fund Convergence
strong Citadel, Renaissance, D.E. Shaw, Two Sigma, Bridgewater
Financials
Revenue
$1.4B +70% YoY
FCF
$764M
Gross Margin
85%
Op Margin
41%
Momentum: accelerating
Top Holders
Citadel $7.6B
Renaissance $1.6B
D.E. Shaw $1.4B
Point72 $912M
Two Sigma $653M
Recent Filings & Data
insider trade 1
net selling · $2,438,623 sold
1 insider · 1 transactions (30d)
Recent transactions
MOORE ALEXANDER D · sell · $2,438,623
filing change 9
MEDIUM New items added: Expanded discussion on risks related to acceptance and integration of new technologies and platforms.
full analysis

The current filing discusses more about potential obsolescence, difficulties in software development and marketing, delays in feature and capability releases, and risks of competitors introducing superior technologies that impact the company.

MEDIUM Material language changes: Updated description of credit facility and financial covenants.
full analysis

Both filings discuss the credit facility with $500 million undrawn line maturing March 2027; current filing adds more explicit detail on covenants, restrictions, cross defaults, collateral and impact on liquidity if default occurs.

HIGH New items added: Expanded and detailed risks related to cybersecurity attacks and breaches.
full analysis

The current filing provides a more in-depth and updated discussion of cybersecurity risks including evolving threats, vulnerabilities in third-party products, risks of unauthorized access, and implications of operating in conflict zones with nation-state threats, compared to prior filing's more general coverage.

MEDIUM New items added: New mention of legal class action and derivative lawsuits.
full analysis

Current filing specifically states that the company and certain officers/directors were sued in class action and derivative lawsuits which could be costly and distracting, referencing Note 8; prior filing only generally mentioned such lawsuits.

MEDIUM Material language changes: More detailed discussion on market seasonality and risks of fluctuations.
full analysis

Current filing adds examples of seasonality influences changing due to government spending and commercial mandates that do not follow historical purchasing patterns, potentially causing more unpredictability in revenue timing.

4 more
MEDIUM Expanded discussion of risks associated with AI technologies and implementations.
MEDIUM Discussion on risks related to joint ventures, channel sales relationships, platform partnerships, a...
HIGH Significant increase in Total Remaining Deal Value.
MEDIUM Modification in the multi-class stock structure risk description in summary section.
Track Record (3/3 correct) ▾

Direction History

3/3 correct at 5 days
2026-03-31 bearish -3.8%
2026-03-11 bullish +0.8%
2026-03-08 bearish -4.0%
Transcript analysis coming soon
bearish for 3d | 15 signals · latest 4h ago

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