MU Micron Technology, Inc.

bullish 4/7 shifts correct ↓ $971.00 +47.48 (+5.1%)
Mkt Cap $1.1T P/E 45.9 fwd 9.2 52wk $94.40 - $981.00 Earnings beating Earnings 2026-06-24 18h ago
Avoided topics on last call (2026Q2): Specific terms of SCAs including price renegotiations and cancellation policies, Detailed fourth quarter gross margin guidance, Specific CapEx requirements tied to customer agreements
What We Found Primary source analysis others skip
SEC Filing Changes
HIGH
New Government Incentives Disclosure

The 2025 filing includes new detailed discussion about government incentives received and expected, including direct funding agreements under the CHIPS Act for U.S. fabrication facilities and expansion projects. It addresses risks associated with meeting conditions and milestones to qualify for these incentives and the consequences of failing to meet such requirements, none of which were disclosed in the prior 2024 filing.

10-K · Filed 2025-10-03
HIGH
Material Language Changes

The prior filing mentioned risks in general terms with minimal detail and no specific examples. For example, the 2024 filing briefly noted risks posed by tariffs and trade restrictions in international operations. The 2025 filing replaces that with extensive descriptions about the impact of the China cybersecurity review, export restrictions, specific trade and operational challenges, detailed pricing volatility data with numerical ranges, and strategic responses to competition including specific competitors named.

10-K · Filed 2025-10-03
HIGH
Removed Risk Factors

The 2024 filing included basic risk discussion around government actions, export restrictions, tariffs, trade protection measures, and laws and regulations related to international operations such as climate change, conflict minerals, and public health crises. These were generally replaced or heavily expanded in the 2025 filing with much more comprehensive and specific risks surrounding geopolitical issues, government restrictions particularly relating to China and Taiwan, and associated impacts on operations and sales.

10-K · Filed 2025-10-03
HIGH
New Risk Factors

The 2025 filing significantly expands the risk factors related to the volatility in average selling prices of semiconductor products, factors affecting gross margins, geopolitical and international operational risks, and competitive pressures. It includes specific data on price volatility ranges for DRAM and NAND products over the past five years, detailed challenges in manufacturing and production ramping, and new risks related to AI demand uncertainty. It also highlights risks from government incentives, capacity expansions, and supply chain issues that were not present or only minimally addressed in the 2024 filing.

10-K · Filed 2025-10-03
HIGH
New Specificity and Data

The 2025 filing provides quantitative data on five-year annual percentage changes in average selling prices ranging from plus low 40% to minus high 40% for DRAM, and plus low 30% to minus low 50% for NAND. It also describes conditions where prices have been below manufacturing costs and the effects thereof, which represents a significant increase in specificity compared to vague references in the 2024 filing.

10-K · Filed 2025-10-03
Material Events (8-K)
8-K
Director departures

Richard M. Beyer and Mary Pat McCarthy, members of the Board of Directors of Micron Technology, Inc., have decided to retire and will not seek re-election at the fiscal 2025 annual shareholders meetin...

Filed 2025-10-21 · Richard M. Beyer, Mary Pat McCarthy
8-K
Guidance Update

Micron Technology, Inc. updated its guidance for the fiscal fourth quarter ending August 28, 2025, via a press release issued on August 11, 2025.

Filed 2025-08-11 · Mark Murphy, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
8-K
Debt Offering $1,750,000,000

Micron Technology, Inc. issued two series of senior notes totaling $1.75 billion: $500 million of 5.65% senior notes due 2032 and $1.25 billion of 6.05% senior notes due 2035. These notes were issued ...

Filed 2025-04-29 · Micron Technology, Inc.
Insider selling: $27,085,832 sold by 3 insiders (30d)
Factor divergence: DIVERGENCE: analyst_revisions, options_sentiment bullish vs price_momentum, narrative_gap, filing_ri
Est. revisions: +1.0% (2 up, 0 down in 30d)
Backed by structured data (insider trades, analyst ratings, or filings)
Factor Model (net -0.1)

Factor Model

net -0.1 2.8 / 10
Est. Revisions
+0.1
Insider Activity
+0.0
Momentum
-1.0
Analyst Rev.
+1.0
Narrative Gap
-0.5
Filing Risk
+5.0

Micron Hits $1 Trillion on AI Chip Surge

Watch: Q2 production at Virginia and Idaho fabs will reveal if Micron can maintain growth amid rising competition and geopolitical risks.

Micron's market cap topped $1 trillion on May 26 after an 830% rally in 12 months, driven by AI demand for its high-bandwidth memory. The company sold out its 2026 HBM supply, with new HBM4 chips offering 60% more capacity and 20% energy savings. UBS raised its target to $1,625 amid strong analyst buy ratings from Barclays and Susquehanna. Leveraged ETF MUU assets surged past $5 billion in 2026, fueled by a 230% gain in Micron stock this year.

This milestone solidifies Micron's leadership in AI-driven memory, supporting sustained revenue growth amid an accelerating semiconductor market and bullish analyst momentum.

Position history (17d) bull bear neutral
2026-05-02 2026-05-29
All 17 daily readings
2026-05-29 bullish · medium 17sig
2026-05-28 bullish · medium 32sig
2026-05-27 bullish · medium 26sig
2026-05-26 bullish · medium 9sig
2026-05-25 bullish · high 7sig
2026-05-24 bullish · medium 12sig
2026-05-23 bullish · medium 11sig
2026-05-21 bullish · medium 21sig
2026-05-20 bullish · medium 21sig
2026-05-18 bullish · high 7sig
2026-05-14 bullish · medium 17sig
2026-05-13 bullish · medium 17sig
2026-05-12 bullish · medium 17sig
2026-05-08 bullish · medium 9sig
2026-05-05 bullish · high 3sig
2026-05-04 bullish · high 4sig
2026-05-02 bullish · high 5sig

Related Stocks

Ripple Effect

When MU goes bearish, NVDA follows 7x (29% same direction)

When MU goes mixed, NVDA follows 5x (40% same direction)

Evidence

Fundamentals & Data ▾
Micron Technology, Inc. Technology · Semiconductors
Mkt Cap
$1.1T
P/E
45.9 fwd 9.2
Beta
1.92
Div Yield
6.00%
52w Range
$94.40 - $981.00
Short Interest
35.2M 3.13%
Days to Cover
0.8 -3%
Technicals uptrend
vs 20d MA
+29.2%
vs 50d MA
+74.2%
from 52w Hi
0.0%
Vol (20d)
104%
1w return
+27.4%
1m return
+87.3%
3m return
+135.5%
Vol ratio
1.1x
Insiders
selling 0B / 17S
Analysts
bullish 2 up / 0 down
Earnings
beating 8B / 0M
EPS Estimate
$19.29 +1.0% 30d 2up / 0dn
Est. Dispersion
80% 31 analysts
Analyst Target
$703 $249 - $1750
Options P/C
2.03 27C / 37P unusual
Insider Cluster
strong sell 0B / 3S
Fund Convergence
strong Citadel, D.E. Shaw, Renaissance, Two Sigma, Appaloosa
Financials
Revenue
$23.9B +196% YoY
FCF
$5.5B
Gross Margin
74%
Op Margin
68%
Momentum: accelerating
Top Holders
Citadel $6.7B
D.E. Shaw $1.0B
Renaissance $731M
Two Sigma $666M
Appaloosa $499M
Recent Filings & Data
insider trade 3
net selling · $27,085,832 sold
3 insiders · 3 transactions (30d)
Recent transactions
RAY MICHAEL CHARLES · sell · $4,061,207
GOMO STEVEN J · sell · $1,574,070
MEHROTRA SANJAY · sell · $21,450,555
congress trade 2
Ro Khanna (Democrat-CA) · sell · $1K-$15K
Dwight Evans (Democrat-PA) · sell · $15K-$50K
material event 3

Richard M. Beyer and Mary Pat McCarthy, members of the Board of Directors of Micron Technology, Inc., have decided to retire and will not seek re-election at the fiscal 2025 annual shareholders meeting. They will continue to serve until the end of their term at the meeting. SEC↗

Micron Technology, Inc. updated its guidance for the fiscal fourth quarter ending August 28, 2025, via a press release issued on August 11, 2025. SEC↗

Micron Technology, Inc. issued two series of senior notes totaling $1.75 billion: $500 million of 5.65% senior notes due 2032 and $1.25 billion of 6.05% senior notes due 2035. These notes were issued under an indenture with U.S. Bank Trust Company as trustee, with interest payable semi-annually starting November 1, 2025. The issuance was pursuant to a registered public offering. SEC↗

filing change 5
HIGH New Government Incentives Disclosure: New and expanded disclosures on government incentives including CHIPS Act funding, conditions for grant receipt, and pot...
full analysis

The 2025 filing includes new detailed discussion about government incentives received and expected, including direct funding agreements under the CHIPS Act for U.S. fabrication facilities and expansion projects. It addresses risks associated with meeting conditions and milestones to qualify for these incentives and the consequences of failing to meet such requirements, none of which were disclosed in the prior 2024 filing.

HIGH Material Language Changes: Shift from general statements on regulatory risks and international operations to detailed, data-driven risk disclosure ...
full analysis

The prior filing mentioned risks in general terms with minimal detail and no specific examples. For example, the 2024 filing briefly noted risks posed by tariffs and trade restrictions in international operations. The 2025 filing replaces that with extensive descriptions about the impact of the China cybersecurity review, export restrictions, specific trade and operational challenges, detailed pricing volatility data with numerical ranges, and strategic responses to competition including specific competitors named.

HIGH Removed Risk Factors: Simplified and reduced risk factor discussion on laws, regulations, and geopolitical risks found in prior 2024 filing.
full analysis

The 2024 filing included basic risk discussion around government actions, export restrictions, tariffs, trade protection measures, and laws and regulations related to international operations such as climate change, conflict minerals, and public health crises. These were generally replaced or heavily expanded in the 2025 filing with much more comprehensive and specific risks surrounding geopolitical issues, government restrictions particularly relating to China and Taiwan, and associated impacts on operations and sales.

HIGH New Risk Factors: Expanded and detailed risk factors related to business, operations, and industry including product pricing volatility, g...
full analysis

The 2025 filing significantly expands the risk factors related to the volatility in average selling prices of semiconductor products, factors affecting gross margins, geopolitical and international operational risks, and competitive pressures. It includes specific data on price volatility ranges for DRAM and NAND products over the past five years, detailed challenges in manufacturing and production ramping, and new risks related to AI demand uncertainty. It also highlights risks from government incentives, capacity expansions, and supply chain issues that were not present or only minimally addressed in the 2024 filing.

HIGH New Specificity and Data: Introduction of specific historical price volatility percentage ranges for DRAM and NAND products and detailed descripti...
full analysis

The 2025 filing provides quantitative data on five-year annual percentage changes in average selling prices ranging from plus low 40% to minus high 40% for DRAM, and plus low 30% to minus low 50% for NAND. It also describes conditions where prices have been below manufacturing costs and the effects thereof, which represents a significant increase in specificity compared to vague references in the 2024 filing.

Transcript Analysis (2026Q2) ▾

Management is highly confident and specific in prepared remarks but demonstrates moderate hedging and some evasiveness on sensitive topics like strategic customer agreements during Q&A.

Hedging
0.30
Confidence
0.80 (high)
Specificity
0.75 (high)
Active Voice
0.70
Prepared vs Q&A Gap
-0.15
Question Avoidance
4 (high)
Avoided Topics
Specific terms of SCAs including price renegotiations and cancellation policies Detailed fourth quarter gross margin guidance Specific CapEx requirements tied to customer agreements
Key Language Changes
  • Repeated emphasis on confidentiality around strategic agreements
  • Strong focus on AI as a transformational secular driver supporting high margins
  • Significant specificity with multiple numeric details, highlighting strong execution
  • Moderate hedging through cautious language around future demand and margins, especially in Q&A
  • No mention of any negative macroeconomic or geopolitical risks in Q&A, signaling selective omission
Track Record (4/7 correct) ▾

Direction History

4/7 correct at 5 days
2026-04-08 bullish +12.2%
2026-03-31 bearish +20.4%
2026-03-26 bearish +3.1%
2026-03-18 bullish -17.2%
2026-03-16 bearish -8.5%
2026-03-15 bearish -0.8%
2026-03-10 bullish +14.5%
bullish for 17d | 15 signals · latest 4h ago

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