MSFT Microsoft Corporation

neutral 4/9 calls correct ↓ $393.11 +8.74 (+2.3%)
Mkt Cap $2.8T P/E 23.2 fwd 19.7 52wk $355.67 - $555.45 Earnings beating Earnings 2026-04-29 3h ago
What We Found Primary source analysis others skip
SEC Filing Changes
HIGH
NEW items added

The 2025-07-30 current filing adds a comprehensive Strategic and Competitive Risks section describing intense competition in technology markets, platform-based ecosystems, competition in PC operating systems, and challenges from vertically-integrated competitors including impacts on operating margins, which is not present in the 2024-07-30 prior filing.

10-K · Filed 2025-07-30
Est. revisions: +0.0% (17 up, 6 down in 30d)
Backed by structured data (insider trades, analyst ratings, or filings)

Factor Model

net +0.5 1.8 / 10
Est. Revisions
+0.0
Insider Activity
+0.0
Momentum
-0.1
Analyst Rev.
+0.7
Narrative Gap
+0.0
Filing Risk
+1.0

Microsoft Azure Backlog Surges to $625B

Watch: April 29 earnings call for updated AI guidance and margin impact from supply deals.

Full analysis

Microsoft reported Q2 FY2026 EPS of $4.14 beating estimates by 7.57%, with revenue rising 16.7% to $81.27 billion. Azure cloud grew 39% YoY, powered by a $625 billion commercial backlog, giving multi-year revenue visibility. OpenAI renegotiated its contract to spend an extra $250 billion on Azure, expanding co-development rights. Despite a 19.2% YTD stock decline, 95% of analysts remain bullish with an average price target near $587. Amazon and competitors mount AI infrastructure challenges, creating market rivalry tensions.

Microsoft’s dominant Azure growth and massive contract backlog cement its leading AI cloud infrastructure position, underpinning durable revenue streams amid heightened competitive risks and market valuation pressure.

Compare

vs NVDA vs AMD vs AAPL vs TSLA vs META vs GOOGL vs AMZN vs TSM vs ASML

Related Stocks

AAPL bullish sector peer NVDA bullish supply chain

Ripple Effect

When MSFT goes bearish, NVDA follows 9x (56% same direction)

When MSFT goes bullish, AAPL follows 4x (0% same direction)

When MSFT goes mixed, NVDA follows 4x (25% same direction)

When MSFT goes bearish, AAPL follows 2x (100% same direction)

When MSFT goes mixed, AAPL follows 2x (0% same direction)

Evidence

4m ago Will AI Disruption Crush Microsoft (MSFT)? yahoo-finance
4h ago In-Depth Analysis: Amazon.com Versus Competitors In Broadline Retail Industry benzinga
8h ago A $21 Billion Reason to Buy CoreWeave Stock Now yahoo-finance
12h ago Mizuho main MSFT: Outperform → Outperform
22h ago Can Microsoft’s (MSFT) New Copilot Strategy Work In Its Favor? yahoo-finance
1d ago CoreWeave, Nebius Get Fresh Upside Calls As BofA Bets Bigger On AI Compute Boom - Benzinga google-news-nbis
1d ago Piper Sandler main MSFT: Overweight → Overweight
1d ago This Will Be Microsoft’s Price Next Year yahoo-finance
7 older signals
1d ago MSFT up 3% Bernstein and Goldman pushing back on the AI spending concerns
1d ago This Is How Microsoft Is Making Money from AI Right Now
1d ago The ‘incredible period’ for the US economy is ending, Warren Buffett once said. Is his prediction coming true in 2026?
1d ago Meta Platforms Finally Releases Muse Spark. Is the AI Model Worth the Wait?
1d ago 2 of the Most Owned Stocks on Robinhood Also Have at Least 50% Upside, According to Wall Street
1d ago Microsoft’s Copilot Problem Isn’t What You Think
1d ago OpenAI Says Microsoft 'Limited' Its Reach, Slams Anthropic For 'Inflated $30B Revenue
Fundamentals & Data ▾
Microsoft Corporation Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Mkt Cap
$2.8T
P/E
23.2 fwd 19.7
Beta
1.11
Div Yield
98.00%
52w Range
$355.67 - $555.45
Short Interest
79.8M 1.08%
Days to Cover
2.5 +42%
Technicals uptrend
vs 20d MA
+4.5%
vs 50d MA
+0.3%
from 52w Hi
-27.2%
Vol (20d)
26%
1w return
+5.6%
1m return
-0.6%
3m return
-17.4%
Vol ratio
1.0x
Insiders
selling 1B / 9S
Analysts
mixed
Earnings
beating 4B / 0M
EPS Estimate
$4.07 +0.0% 30d 17up / 6dn
Est. Dispersion
7% 30 analysts
Analyst Target
$585 $392 - $730
Options P/C
0.41
Insider Cluster
strong buy 2B / 8S (officer)
Fund Convergence
strong D.E. Shaw, Citadel, Tiger Global, Coatue, Elliott
Financials
Revenue
$81.3B +17% YoY
FCF
$5.9B
Gross Margin
68%
Op Margin
47%
Momentum: accelerating
Top Holders
D.E. Shaw $23.7B
Citadel $11.2B
Tiger Global $2.6B
Coatue $2.5B
Elliott $1.6B
Recent Filings & Data
filing change 1
HIGH NEW items added: Addition of detailed Strategic and Competitive Risks section in current filing.
full analysis

The 2025-07-30 current filing adds a comprehensive Strategic and Competitive Risks section describing intense competition in technology markets, platform-based ecosystems, competition in PC operating systems, and challenges from vertically-integrated competitors including impacts on operating margins, which is not present in the 2024-07-30 prior filing.

Track Record (4/9 correct) ▾

Direction History

4/9 correct at 5 days
2026-04-07 bearish +5.6% ✗
2026-04-04 bullish -0.7% ✗
2026-03-28 bearish +4.5% ✗
2026-03-26 bullish +2.0% ✓
2026-03-20 bearish -6.6% ✓
2026-03-17 bullish -6.7% ✗
2026-03-16 bearish -4.2% ✓
2026-03-11 bearish -3.2% ✓
2026-03-08 bullish -3.3% ✗
Full track record across all stocks →
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