MSFT Microsoft Corporation

neutral 5/10 shifts correct ↓ $450.24 +23.25 (+5.5%)
Mkt Cap $3.3T P/E 26.8 fwd 23.3 52wk $356.28 - $555.45 Earnings beating 22h ago
What We Found Primary source analysis others skip
SEC Filing Changes
HIGH
NEW items added

The 2025-07-30 current filing adds a comprehensive Strategic and Competitive Risks section describing intense competition in technology markets, platform-based ecosystems, competition in PC operating systems, and challenges from vertically-integrated competitors including impacts on operating margins, which is not present in the 2024-07-30 prior filing.

10-K · Filed 2025-07-30
Material Events (8-K)
8-K
Compensatory arrangement adoption and director election

At the Microsoft Corporation 2025 Annual Shareholders Meeting, shareholders approved the Microsoft Corporation 2026 Stock Plan, replacing the 2017 Stock Plan. Additionally, 12 director nominees were e...

Filed 2025-12-08 · Microsoft Corporation Board of Directors, Deloitte Touche LLP
8-K
Regulation FD Disclosure and Financial Results Announcement

Microsoft Corporation disclosed updates on October 28, 2025, including a new phase in their partnership with OpenAI, detailed in a blog post. They also released financial results for the quarter ended...

Filed 2025-10-29
8-K
Departure of Director

Carlos A. Rodriguez, a member of the Microsoft Board of Directors and Chair of the Compensation Committee as well as a member of the Audit Committee, decided not to stand for re-election at the 2025 a...

Filed 2025-09-30 · Carlos A. Rodriguez - Director, Chair of Compensation Committee, Member of Audit Committee
Insider selling: $519,242 sold by 1 insider (30d)
Factor divergence: DIVERGENCE: price_momentum bullish vs analyst_revisions bearish
Est. revisions: -0.2% (8 up, 17 down in 30d)
Factor Model (net -0.8)

Factor Model

net -0.8 4.0 / 10
Est. Revisions
-0.0
Insider Activity
+0.0
Momentum
+0.5
Analyst Rev.
-0.6
Narrative Gap
+0.0
Filing Risk
+1.0

Microsoft AI and Cloud Revenues Surge Strongly

Watch: Microsoft's upcoming earnings will reveal Azure growth sustainability and margins amid intensifying AI investment and competitive pressures.

Microsoft's AI business hit a $37B annualized revenue run rate, growing 123% YoY, driven by Microsoft 365 Copilot seats rising 250% to 20M. Azure cloud revenue grew 40%, contributing to Intelligent Cloud revenue of $34.68B. Commercial remaining performance obligations almost doubled to $627B. GitHub Copilot's new token-based billing risks developer backlash. Institutional funds are strongly accumulating MSFT amid a rising stock up 5.4% with positive tech sector momentum.

Robust AI and cloud growth demonstrate Microsoft's dominance in enterprise AI spending, supporting sustained revenue expansion and institutional demand despite some pricing model and capex scrutiny.

Position history (5d) bull bear neutral
2026-05-01 2026-05-09
All 5 daily readings
2026-05-09 neutral · medium 11sig
2026-05-05 neutral · high 14sig
2026-05-04 neutral · high 12sig
2026-05-02 bullish · medium 19sig
2026-05-01 bullish · medium 27sig

Related Stocks

Ripple Effect

When MSFT goes bearish, NVDA follows 9x (56% same direction)

When MSFT goes bullish, AAPL follows 4x (0% same direction)

When MSFT goes mixed, NVDA follows 4x (25% same direction)

When MSFT goes bearish, AAPL follows 2x (100% same direction)

When MSFT goes mixed, AAPL follows 2x (0% same direction)

+2.6%

Long Call · Vol Rider

25d · 2026-05-26
+2.6%

Long Call · Vol Rider

25d · 2026-05-25
+2.6%

Long Call · Vol Rider

25d · 2026-05-22
+2.6%

Long Call · Vol Rider

25d · 2026-05-21
+3.8%

Long Call · Vol Rider

23d · 2026-05-01

Evidence

7 older signals
Fundamentals & Data ▾
Microsoft Corporation Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Mkt Cap
$3.3T
P/E
26.8 fwd 23.3
Beta
1.09
Div Yield
81.00%
52w Range
$356.28 - $555.45
Short Interest
77.3M 1.04%
Days to Cover
2.1 -7%
Technicals uptrend
vs 20d MA
+7.9%
vs 50d MA
+11.8%
from 52w Hi
-16.6%
Vol (20d)
28%
1w return
+7.4%
1m return
+6.1%
3m return
+14.6%
Vol ratio
1.2x
Insiders
selling 1B / 6S
Analysts
mixed
Earnings
beating 4B / 0M
EPS Estimate
$4.24 -0.2% 30d 8up / 17dn
Est. Dispersion
19% 30 analysts
Analyst Target
$561 $400 - $870
Options P/C
0.22 10C / 6P unusual
Fund Convergence
strong D.E. Shaw, Citadel, Tiger Global, Coatue, Elliott
Financials
Revenue
$82.9B +18% YoY
FCF
$15.8B
Gross Margin
68%
Op Margin
46%
Momentum: decelerating
Top Holders
D.E. Shaw $23.7B
Citadel $11.2B
Tiger Global $2.6B
Coatue $2.5B
Elliott $1.6B
Recent Filings & Data
insider trade 1
net selling · $519,242 sold
1 insider · 1 transactions (30d)
Recent transactions
COLEMAN AMY · sell · $519,242
material event 3

At the Microsoft Corporation 2025 Annual Shareholders Meeting, shareholders approved the Microsoft Corporation 2026 Stock Plan, replacing the 2017 Stock Plan. Additionally, 12 director nominees were elected, executive officer compensation was approved on an advisory basis, and Deloitte Touche LLP was ratified as the independent auditor for fiscal 2026. No departures or compensatory arrangements for specific officers were reported, and several shareholder proposals were not approved. SEC↗

Microsoft Corporation disclosed updates on October 28, 2025, including a new phase in their partnership with OpenAI, detailed in a blog post. They also released financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, in a press release and an investor presentation titled 'First Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Results.' SEC↗

Carlos A. Rodriguez, a member of the Microsoft Board of Directors and Chair of the Compensation Committee as well as a member of the Audit Committee, decided not to stand for re-election at the 2025 annual shareholder meeting for personal reasons. He will continue to serve until the meeting. There is no disagreement with management. SEC↗

filing change 1
HIGH NEW items added: Addition of detailed Strategic and Competitive Risks section in current filing.
full analysis

The 2025-07-30 current filing adds a comprehensive Strategic and Competitive Risks section describing intense competition in technology markets, platform-based ecosystems, competition in PC operating systems, and challenges from vertically-integrated competitors including impacts on operating margins, which is not present in the 2024-07-30 prior filing.

Transcript Analysis (2025Q1) ▾
Hedging
0.00 (low)
Confidence
0.00 (low)
Specificity
0.00 (low)
Active Voice
0.00
Prepared vs Q&A Gap
+0.00
Question Avoidance
0 (none)
Track Record (5/10 correct) ▾

Direction History

5/10 correct at 5 days
2026-04-18 bullish +0.4%
2026-04-07 bearish +5.6%
2026-04-04 bullish -0.7%
2026-03-28 bearish +4.5%
2026-03-26 bullish +2.0%
2026-03-20 bearish -6.6%
2026-03-17 bullish -6.7%
2026-03-16 bearish -4.2%
2026-03-11 bearish -3.2%
2026-03-08 bullish -3.3%
neutral for 3d | 15 signals · latest 7h ago

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