LSCC Lattice Semiconductor Corporation
bearish · high conviction track record → $117.06 +5.18 (+4.6%)Factor Model (net +1.2)
Factor Model
net +1.2 3.0 / 10Strong Q4 but mega-funds still exiting
Watch: Q1 2026 13F filings (due in May) will show whether the institutional exodus accelerates or stabilizes. If T. Rowe, UBS, and peers continue unwinding at this pace despite no operational deterioration, that confirms the sell-off is structural, not tactical. Watch for analyst downgrades or target cuts in the next 4–6 weeks — that's when consensus catches up to fund behavior.
Lattice Semiconductor reported Q4 2025 revenue of $145.8 million, up 24% year-over-year, with all 7 analyst ratings in buy/outperform territory and a $118 median price target. But institutional behavior tells a different story. T. Rowe Price exited 52% of its position in Q4 (10.85 million shares worth ~$798.5 million), UBS Asset Management slashed 75%, and 226 institutional investors restructured holdings in the quarter. Insiders have logged 30 sales versus 4 buys over six months. CVP Tonya Stevens sold 1,100 shares on March 2 at $105 per share, continuing the exit pattern despite operational strength.
When mega-cap institutional holders liquidate 50%+ during a growth quarter, they're pricing in risk or headwinds that analyst consensus hasn't caught up to. The analyst ratings and price targets ($105–$135 range) are trailing indicators, while large fund exits are forward-looking signals. This divergence — record revenue growth against record fund outflows — suggests either valuation stress in semiconductors broadly or company-specific concerns (margins, guidance, competitive positioning) that a single quarter of beats won't resolve. No new operational deterioration has surfaced; this is pure capital reallocation under the surface.
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Full track record →Long Call · Wide Runner
2026-04-15
Long Call · Quick Draw
2026-04-14
Long Call · The Indexer
2026-04-11
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