LMT Lockheed Martin Corporation
neutral SHIFT 1/2 calls correct ↓ $611.58 -8.11 (-1.3%) -2.0% since callThe current filing uses 'sales' rather than 'net sales' seen in prior filing. The detailed breakdown of sales, operating costs and expenses, impairment charges, pension expenses, and accounting policy descriptions have been expanded with more explicit language on profit booking rates, reach-forward losses, and contract revenue recognition under percentage-of-completion cost-to-cost method, highlighting the impact of specific programs and losses recognized in 2025 compared to 2024.
The current filing provides detailed 2025 financial results: total sales of $75.0B vs prior 2024 $71.0B; operating profit $7.7B vs $7.0B; net earnings $5.0B vs $5.3B; increased backlog and funded backlog values. Debt details, interest expense, pension settlement charges, and tax effects updated with new figures. Also, changes in purchase obligations and letters of credit are specific for 2025 versus 2024.
The current filing highlights a noncash, non-operating pension settlement charge of $479 million related to the transfer of $943 million of gross defined benefit pension obligations to insurance companies in December 2025, representing a continuation of pension risk transfer activities that affect expenses and equity.
The current filing reports that in 2025, international customers accounted for 36% of Aeronautics sales, 29% of Missiles and Fire Control sales, and 34% of Rotary and Mission Systems sales, with detailed programs and nations involved. Backlog at December 31, 2025 was $193.6 billion, increased from $176.0 billion at December 31, 2024. Sales and operating results for 2025 include detailed segment performance, profit booking rates, and new contracts for the F-35 program including Lots 18 and 19 finalized in 2025. This information was not available in prior filing for 2025.
Factor Model
net -2.9 6.9 / 10Lockheed Martin up 26% amid cautious headwinds
Watch: Watch April 23 earnings for margin trends, backlog conversion, and risk disclosures crucial to sustaining the bullish momentum.
Full analysis
Lockheed Martin shares are up 26% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500 which is down slightly under 1%. The company posted Q4 revenue of $20.3 billion, up 9.1% year-over-year, with 2026 guidance calling for 5% sales growth and 25% segment profit growth. However, recent insider selling of $17.97 million combined with analyst estimate cuts of 2.2% and a high P/E near 29 create headwinds amid a technical downtrend and elevated valuation.
Strong revenue growth and optimistic guidance contrast with analyst downgrades and insider selling, indicating risk despite robust fundamentals and broad institutional support.
All 5 daily readings
Event Predictions
LMT faces analyst headwinds and insider selling despite beat history
Thesis
LMT has a 75% historical beat rate, but recent signals suggest deteriorating confidence: analysts have cut estimates 2.6% with 0 upgrades / 3 downgrades in the broader trend, insiders have sold $10.7M with zero buys in 90 days (pre-earnings timing is suspicious), and 4 filing changes introduced 2 new high-materiality risk items. At P/E 29.0 near 52w highs, valuation leaves no margin for error. While sell-the-news probability is moderate at 45%, the combination of analyst cuts, insider selling, and filing risks outweighs the beat history.
Evidence
7 older signals
Fundamentals & Data ▾
Recent transactions
full analysis
The current filing uses 'sales' rather than 'net sales' seen in prior filing. The detailed breakdown of sales, operating costs and expenses, impairment charges, pension expenses, and accounting policy descriptions have been expanded with more explicit language on profit booking rates, reach-forward losses, and contract revenue recognition under percentage-of-completion cost-to-cost method, highlighting the impact of specific programs and losses recognized in 2025 compared to 2024.
full analysis
The current filing provides detailed 2025 financial results: total sales of $75.0B vs prior 2024 $71.0B; operating profit $7.7B vs $7.0B; net earnings $5.0B vs $5.3B; increased backlog and funded backlog values. Debt details, interest expense, pension settlement charges, and tax effects updated with new figures. Also, changes in purchase obligations and letters of credit are specific for 2025 versus 2024.
full analysis
The current filing highlights a noncash, non-operating pension settlement charge of $479 million related to the transfer of $943 million of gross defined benefit pension obligations to insurance companies in December 2025, representing a continuation of pension risk transfer activities that affect expenses and equity.
full analysis
The current filing reports that in 2025, international customers accounted for 36% of Aeronautics sales, 29% of Missiles and Fire Control sales, and 34% of Rotary and Mission Systems sales, with detailed programs and nations involved. Backlog at December 31, 2025 was $193.6 billion, increased from $176.0 billion at December 31, 2024. Sales and operating results for 2025 include detailed segment performance, profit booking rates, and new contracts for the F-35 program including Lots 18 and 19 finalized in 2025. This information was not available in prior filing for 2025.
Track Record (1/2 correct) ▾
Direction History
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