LLY Eli Lilly and Company

bullish · high conviction track record → $1105.00 -21.80 (-1.9%)
Mkt Cap $1.0T P/E 40.0 fwd 25.3 52wk $623.78 - $1149.10 Earnings beating 19h ago
We disagree with Wall Street. Analyst consensus: bearish. Our position: bullish. See factor model below for why.
What We Found Primary source analysis others skip
SEC Filing Changes
MEDIUM
NEW items added

The current filing discusses updated risks linked to changes in Medicaid rebate calculations and rebates to 340B covered entities, potentially increasing obligations and decreasing prices, with impact on business. Prior filing mentions increased rebates but less detail.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-12
MEDIUM
NEW items added

The 2026 filing adds detailed tables on the clinical development pipeline status for numerous compounds, including approvals, submissions, and phase 3 trial initiations for cardiometabolic, immunology, neuroscience, and oncology products, with more extensive mentions of clinical trials ongoing and regulatory statuses compared to the 2025 filing.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-12
HIGH
NEW items added

The 2026 filing includes a detailed section on preliminary voluntary agreements with the U.S. government in 2025 to lower Medicaid and other drug prices and provide more balanced pricing in developed nations, along with associated risks and uncertainties, which is not present in the 2025 filing.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-12
MEDIUM
NEW items added

The 2026 filing notes a U.S. Commissioner’s National Priority Voucher for orforglipron and submissions to the FDA under expedited review pathways, which were not mentioned in the 2025 filing.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-12
MEDIUM
NEW items added

The 2026 filing details capital expenditures amounting to $7.8 billion in 2025, increased manufacturing capacity efforts, and contractual obligations up to $10 billion if purchase commitments are unmet, updating the 2025 filing's $5.06 billion capital expenditures and $14 billion commitments with updated figures and focus.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-12
HIGH
NEW items added

The 2026 filing adds financial results for 2025, highlighting 45% revenue growth, 95% net income growth, and 96% EPS growth driven by volume increases for Mounjaro and Zepbound, gross margin improvements, and detailed revenue breakdown by region and product, absent in the 2025 filing which only covers up to 2024.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-12
MEDIUM
LANGUAGE CHANGE

2025 filing explains IRA's price-setting process and its negative implications including discount percentages, and newer policies like the BIOSECURE Act under consideration; 2026 filing instead describes ongoing risks from government pricing, pricing concessions, Medicaid impacts, with a forward-looking perspective on negotiations and their uncertain outcomes, reflecting updated regulatory conditions and agreements.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-12
MEDIUM
Dollar amount or specificity change

The 2026 filing updates revenue growth to 45% in 2025, $65.179 billion total revenue, $20.64 billion net income and other updated financial metrics, whereas 2025 filling reports 32% revenue growth in 2024 with $45.042 billion revenue and $10.59 billion net income, reflecting updated and new fiscal year data.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-12
MEDIUM
Dollar amount or specificity change

2026 filing reports acquired in-process research and development expenses of $2.91 billion in 2025 related to acquisitions including Scorpion Therapeutics and SiteOne, and outlines pending acquisitions <$3 billion in 2026; 2025 filing reports $3.28 billion IPRD in 2024, primarily from Morphic acquisition, and detailed amounts paid in 2024.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-12
MEDIUM
Dollar amount or specificity change

2026 filing shows total debt at $42.5 billion as of Dec 31, 2025, with cash and equivalents at $7.3 billion; 2025 filing shows total debt at $33.6 billion as of Dec 31, 2024, and cash equivalents at $3.3 billion.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-12
HIGH
New mentions of investigations, litigation, regulatory actions

The 2026 filing adds language about ongoing issues with counterfeit, misbranded, and compounded incretin medicines impacting patient safety and regulatory processes, with Lilly considering legal actions to address these issues, not present in the 2025 filing.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-12
MEDIUM
LANGUAGE CHANGE

2025 filing focuses on tirzepatide supply-demand dynamics and variable quarterly revenue, noting supply sometimes exceeding demand and disruptions; 2026 filing highlights incretin medicines representing 56% of revenue, pricing agreements with U.S. government, expected Medicare access by mid-2026, and regulatory concerns over counterfeit incretins, indicating a more mature market position and regulatory engagement.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-12
HIGH
NEW items added

The current filing includes added language about the risks associated with business development activities focused on new modalities, which entails additional risks and costs given the high scientific uncertainty inherent in novel technologies. Also, additional language is added on safety or efficacy concerns after product approval, specifically mentioning these concerns could lead to product recall, withdrawals, or costly product liability claims, with significant financial, legal, commercial, or reputational harm.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-12
MEDIUM
NEW items added

In November 2025, the company announced preliminary voluntary agreements with the U.S. government to lower Medicaid and certain other drug prices and to launch new medicines with balanced pricing approaches. This is new language not in the prior filing, with associated risks and uncertainties.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-12
MEDIUM
NEW items added

Additional products such as Trulicity and Verzenio were selected for government-set prices starting in 2026 and later 2028, with a statement that more products will be selected in future years accelerating revenue erosion. This level of detail is new compared to the prior filing.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-12
MEDIUM
NEW items added

Added language warning that inadequately regulated e-commerce may increase dangerous counterfeit or mass-compounded products, impacting patient safety and the company's reputation.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-12
MEDIUM
MATERIAL LANGUAGE CHANGES

The current filing has more detailed discussion on pricing pressures including the November 2025 agreements with the U.S. government, potential delays and adverse impacts from pricing concessions, and international pricing strategies, while the prior filing discusses these risks more generally without reference to such agreements.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-12
MEDIUM
DOLLAR AMOUNT OR SPECIFICITY CHANGES

The current filing states Mounjaro and Zepbound accounted for 56% of total revenues in 2025 and collectively six products accounted for 82% of revenues; prior filing provided 48% for Mounjaro, Trulicity, Zepbound in 2024 and 75% for six products overall. The newer filing updates these figures with 2025 data and different product grouping.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-12
MEDIUM
MATERIAL LANGUAGE CHANGES

Current filing reflects ongoing and increased competition for qualified individuals and necessity to develop workforce in and outside the U.S., while prior mentions expansion but is less detailed.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-12
MEDIUM
MATERIAL LANGUAGE CHANGES

Revised language highlights intensified scrutiny including risks from a shifting regulatory environment, novel programs like FDA Commissioner's voucher pilot program, and increased complexity and enforcement compared to prior.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-12
MEDIUM
NEW items added

Current filing includes discussion of climate change, greenhouse gas emissions, human rights, sustainability matters and potential negative impacts on reputation and legal risks; prior filing mentions some of these briefly but less extensively.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-12
Material Events (8-K)
8-K
Election of Director

The Board of Directors of Eli Lilly and Company elected Carolyn R. Bertozzi, Ph.D, a professor at Stanford University and an Investigator at the Howard Hughes Medical Institute, as a new director effe...

Filed 2025-11-21 · Carolyn R. Bertozzi, Ph.D
Insider selling: $15,754,537 sold by 5 insiders (30d)
Factor divergence: DIVERGENCE: estimate_revisions, analyst_revisions bullish vs price_momentum, options_sentiment, fili
Est. revisions: +9.0% (18 up, 1 down in 30d)
Factor Model (net +0.0)

Factor Model

net +0.0 2.0 / 10
Est. Revisions
+0.5
Insider Activity
+0.0
Momentum
-0.6
Analyst Rev.
+0.9
Narrative Gap
+0.0
Filing Risk
+20.0

Eli Lilly Advances Gene Therapy, Vaccine Expansion

Watch: Upcoming VERVE-102 trial updates and integration of vaccine acquisitions will drive growth visibility and stock reaction.

Eli Lilly showed up to 88% reduction in PCSK9 and 62% LDL cholesterol in Phase 1b trials of gene-editing drug VERVE-102, with FDA Fast Track status. The company announced $3.8 billion acquisitions of three vaccine developers to boost infectious disease prevention. Jim Cramer praised Eli Lilly's management and highlighted Phase 3 success for weight loss drug Retatrutide alongside its dominant GLP-1 portfolio and near $1 trillion market cap.

These breakthroughs and acquisitions expand Eli Lilly's growth avenues beyond diabetes drugs, reinforcing its leadership in cardiovascular and infectious diseases with durable, high-margin innovations.

Position history (2d) bull bear neutral
2026-05-02 2026-05-08

Evidence

Fundamentals & Data ▾
Eli Lilly and Company Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General
Mkt Cap
$1.0T
P/E
40.0 fwd 25.3
Beta
0.48
Div Yield
61.00%
52w Range
$623.78 - $1149.10
Short Interest
8.4M 0.95%
Days to Cover
2.4 +4%
Technicals uptrend
vs 20d MA
+8.8%
vs 50d MA
+15.8%
from 52w Hi
-1.9%
Vol (20d)
30%
1w return
+6.1%
1m return
+29.8%
3m return
+5.0%
Vol ratio
1.1x
Insiders
selling 0B / 7S
Analysts
bearish 0 up / 1 down
Earnings
beating 3B / 1M
EPS Estimate
$8.81 +9.0% 30d 18up / 1dn
Est. Dispersion
14% 20 analysts
Analyst Target
$1215 $850 - $1500
Options P/C
1.64 0C / 2P unusual
Fund Convergence
strong D.E. Shaw, Citadel, Bridgewater, Renaissance, Soros
Financials
Revenue
$19.8B +56% YoY
FCF
$2.8B
Gross Margin
82%
Op Margin
49%
Momentum: decelerating
Top Holders
D.E. Shaw $14.4B
Citadel $5.4B
Bridgewater $79M
Renaissance $66M
Soros $24M
Recent Filings & Data
insider trade 5
net selling · $15,754,537 sold
5 insiders · 5 transactions (30d)
Recent transactions
ALVAREZ RALPH · award · $12,416
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC. · sell · $15,754,537
SULZBERGER GABRIELLE · award · $4,958
LUCIANO JUAN R · award · $15,917
FYRWALD J. ERIK · award · $9,916
filing change 21
MEDIUM NEW items added: Expanded risks related to government price setting and Medicaid rebate calculations.
full analysis

The current filing discusses updated risks linked to changes in Medicaid rebate calculations and rebates to 340B covered entities, potentially increasing obligations and decreasing prices, with impact on business. Prior filing mentions increased rebates but less detail.

MEDIUM NEW items added: Increased detail on pipeline progress and approvals
full analysis

The 2026 filing adds detailed tables on the clinical development pipeline status for numerous compounds, including approvals, submissions, and phase 3 trial initiations for cardiometabolic, immunology, neuroscience, and oncology products, with more extensive mentions of clinical trials ongoing and regulatory statuses compared to the 2025 filing.

HIGH NEW items added: New drug pricing agreements with U.S. government
full analysis

The 2026 filing includes a detailed section on preliminary voluntary agreements with the U.S. government in 2025 to lower Medicaid and other drug prices and provide more balanced pricing in developed nations, along with associated risks and uncertainties, which is not present in the 2025 filing.

MEDIUM NEW items added: Discussion of FDA expedited review and priority vouchers
full analysis

The 2026 filing notes a U.S. Commissioner’s National Priority Voucher for orforglipron and submissions to the FDA under expedited review pathways, which were not mentioned in the 2025 filing.

MEDIUM NEW items added: Increased discussion of manufacturing expansion and contract manufacturing risk
full analysis

The 2026 filing details capital expenditures amounting to $7.8 billion in 2025, increased manufacturing capacity efforts, and contractual obligations up to $10 billion if purchase commitments are unmet, updating the 2025 filing's $5.06 billion capital expenditures and $14 billion commitments with updated figures and focus.

16 more
HIGH Details of 2025 financial results and operating performance
MEDIUM Change in description of drug pricing regulations and impacts
MEDIUM Updated financial figures for 2025 vs 2024 and 2024 vs 2023
MEDIUM Changes in acquired IPRD expenses and business acquisitions
MEDIUM Changes in debt, cash, and liquidity figures
HIGH Mention of litigation and product safety concerns with counterfeit incretins
MEDIUM Shift in focus on incretin medicines (Mounjaro and Zepbound)
HIGH New items added regarding business development focus on new modalities and additional risks regardin...
MEDIUM Added details about U.S. government voluntary agreements on pricing and access.
MEDIUM Mention of specific products selected for government-set prices and projected future selections.
MEDIUM New risks related to e-commerce increasing prevalence of counterfeit or mass-compounded drugs.
MEDIUM Expansion and specificity changes in risks related to government's pricing controls and restrictions...
MEDIUM Updated revenue percentages and product contributions.
MEDIUM Details about increased competition for talent and workforce expansion updated and extended.
MEDIUM Updates to regulatory compliance risk language reflecting evolving regulations and increased scrutin...
MEDIUM Additional environmental, social, and governance (ESG) risks and sustainability commitments discusse...
material event 1

The Board of Directors of Eli Lilly and Company elected Carolyn R. Bertozzi, Ph.D, a professor at Stanford University and an Investigator at the Howard Hughes Medical Institute, as a new director effective December 8, 2025. She will serve on the Science and Technology Committee and the Ethics and Compliance Committee and will stand for election at the annual meeting in May 2026. SEC↗

Track Record (1/1 correct) ▾

Direction History

1/1 correct at 5 days
2026-04-15 bullish +1.8%
bullish for 2d | 15 signals · latest 15h ago

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