Get emailed when HUBS changes direction
Insider selling: $227,406,942 sold by 15 insiders (30d)
Est. revisions:
+0.0%
(20 up, 4 down in 30d)
Backed by structured data (insider trades, analyst ratings, or filings)
Factor Model (net +1.1)
Factor Model
net +1.1 2.0 / 10
Est. Revisions
+0.0
Insider Activity
+0.0
Momentum
+0.0
Analyst Rev.
+0.9
Narrative Gap
+0.0
Earnings beat sparks 6.9% rebound despite cautious 2026 guide
Watch: Q1 2026 net revenue retention. A number above 105% confirms the slowdown is cyclical and validates the buyback thesis; anything lower suggests structural weakness and justifies Stifel's caution. This single metric will either reward the February rebound or punish the optimism.
HubSpot crushed Q4 earnings with 20% revenue growth and a $3.1 billion full-year total, but the 16% guidance for 2026 fell short of prior 17% expectations. Stifel responded by cutting its price target from $500 to $375 on February 12, signaling caution on deceleration. The stock rebounded 6.9% on February 24 as the market reappraised: a 105% net revenue retention rate and 24% net new annualized recurring revenue growth still demonstrate pricing power and customer expansion despite macro headwinds. The company's new share buyback authorization and constructive post-earnings analyst commentary further buttressed sentiment.
The disconnect between Stifel's bearish target cut and the subsequent market rebound reveals a critical insight: HubSpot's underlying business is healthy enough to absorb near-term growth deceleration. A 105% net revenue retention signals customers are expanding within HubSpot's platform, which should support margin expansion and offset top-line slowdown. If Q1 2026 holds NRR above 105%, the 16% guide becomes a conservative floor, not a ceiling — creating upside when the company reports later this quarter.
Evidence
1d ago
BTIG reit HUBS: Buy → Buy
2d ago
Macquarie main HUBS: Outperform → Outperform
5d ago
Canaccord Genuity main HUBS: Buy → Buy
6d ago
RBC Capital reit HUBS: Outperform → Outperform
8d ago
UBS main HUBS: Buy → Buy
8d ago
Piper Sandler main HUBS: Overweight → Overweight
9d ago
Insider sell by SHAH DHARMESH P (HUBS): $11,019,040
9d ago
Insider sell by SHAH DHARMESH P (HUBS): $18,497,196
7 older signals
9d ago
Insider sell by SHAH DHARMESH P (HUBS): $18,192,999
9d ago
Insider sell by SHAH DHARMESH P (HUBS): $16,815,415
9d ago
Insider sell by SHAH DHARMESH P (HUBS): $14,671,369
9d ago
Insider sell by SHAH DHARMESH P (HUBS): $15,520,292
9d ago
Insider buy by HALLIGAN BRIAN P (HUBS): $14,585
Fundamentals & Data ▾
HubSpot, Inc.
Technology · Software - Application
Mkt Cap
$12B
P/E
255.5 fwd 14.6
Beta
1.44
52w Range
$187.45 - $682.57
Short Interest
3.0M 6.67%
Days to Cover
2.4 -3%
Technicals
downtrend
from 52w Hi
0.0%
1w return
+11.6%
Insiders
selling
0B / 5S
Analysts
mixed
EPS Estimate
$2.47
+0.0% 30d
20up / 4dn
Est. Dispersion
7%
30 analysts
Analyst Target
$350
$253 - $625
Options P/C
1.30
Insider Cluster
strong sell
1B / 7S
Fund Convergence
strong
D.E. Shaw, Citadel, Two Sigma, Bridgewater
Financials
Revenue
$847M +20% YoY
FCF
$204M
Gross Margin
84%
Op Margin
6%
Momentum:
decelerating
Top Holders
D.E. Shaw
$351M
Citadel
$177M
Two Sigma
$167M
Bridgewater
$26M
Recent Filings & Data
insider trade
137
net selling
· $227,406,942 sold
· $14,585 bought
15 insiders · 137 transactions (30d)
Recent transactions
BUEKER KATHRYN · sell · $251,690
BUEKER KATHRYN · exercise · $349,743
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · sell · $5,210,500
BUEKER KATHRYN · sell · $2,427,200
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · buy · $14,585
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · sell · $5,407,530
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · exercise · $227,956
BERRY MICHAEL J · award
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · sell · $2,233,375
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · other
SHAH DHARMESH P · award
BUEKER KATHRYN · award
RANGAN YAMINI · award
FISHER ERIKA · award
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · sell · $2,090,033
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · award
SHAH DHARMESH P · award
BUEKER KATHRYN · award
RANGAN YAMINI · award
FISHER ERIKA · sell · $348,524
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · sell · $2,578,730
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · sell · $3,119,415
SHAH DHARMESH P · other
SHAH DHARMESH P · exercise · $811,394
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · sell · $3,128,935
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · sell · $115,926
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · exercise · $115,260
SHIH CLARA · award
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · sell · $3,694,290
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · exercise · $100,763
BUEKER KATHRYN · sell · $307,500
RANGAN YAMINI · sell · $1,193,500
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · sell · $4,305,420
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · exercise · $3,570,204
SHAH DHARMESH P · sell · $11,019,040
BUEKER KATHRYN · sell · $59,500
RANGAN YAMINI · sell · $238,500
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · sell · $3,823,640
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · exercise · $1,825,939
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · sell · $4,616,095
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · exercise · $1,363,236
BUEKER KATHRYN · sell · $339,351
RANGAN YAMINI · sell · $1,314,916
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · sell · $4,658,255
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · exercise · $1,110,714
WARD JILL A · award
GILL RONALD S · award
ANAGNOST ANDREW J · award
SIMONS JAY · award
NORRINGTON LORRIE M · award
CALDWELL NICHOLAS V. · award
JOHNSON CLAIRE D'OYLY-HUGHES · award
BUEKER KATHRYN · sell · $142,618
RANGAN YAMINI · sell · $364,690
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · sell · $5,487,090
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · exercise · $1,219,650
BUEKER KATHRYN · sell · $1,760,931
RANGAN YAMINI · sell · $408,000
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · sell · $4,578,100
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · exercise · $860,190
RANGAN YAMINI · sell · $1,367,077
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · sell · $5,163,580
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · exercise · $702,759
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · exercise · $99,634
RANGAN YAMINI · sell · $2,207,867
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · award
SHAH DHARMESH P · award
BUEKER KATHRYN · award
RANGAN YAMINI · award
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · sell · $6,885,000
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · exercise · $448,800
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · award
SHAH DHARMESH P · award
BUEKER KATHRYN · award
BUEKER KATHRYN · sell · $2,369,430
RANGAN YAMINI · award
SHAH DHARMESH P · exercise · $269,981
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · exercise · $376,200
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · sell · $6,028,965
SHAH DHARMESH P · exercise · $309,364
BUEKER KATHRYN · sell · $1,260,056
BUEKER KATHRYN · exercise · $115,546
RANGAN YAMINI · sell · $2,144,761
NORRINGTON LORRIE M · sell · $412,755
NORRINGTON LORRIE M · sell · $394,680
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · exercise · $1,143,282
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · sell · $6,202,025
SHAH DHARMESH P · sell · $18,497,196
SHAH DHARMESH P · other
SHAH DHARMESH P · sell · $18,192,999
RANGAN YAMINI · other
RANGAN YAMINI · sell · $82,086
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · sell · $5,623,515
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · exercise · $248,096
SHAH DHARMESH P · sell · $16,815,415
BUEKER KATHRYN · sell · $1,323,768
BUEKER KATHRYN · sell · $3,066,700
BUEKER KATHRYN · exercise · $699,646
HARVEY DAWSON ALYSSA · sell · $401,100
HARVEY DAWSON ALYSSA · sell · $249,600
HARVEY DAWSON ALYSSA · sell · $257,400
HARVEY DAWSON ALYSSA · exercise · $124,363
HARVEY DAWSON ALYSSA · sell · $217,501
BUEKER KATHRYN · sell · $992,200
BUEKER KATHRYN · exercise · $231,092
RANGAN YAMINI · sell · $755,700
BUEKER KATHRYN · sell · $597,354
RANGAN YAMINI · sell · $792,441
RANGAN YAMINI · sell · $56,978
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · sell · $4,245,155
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · exercise · $345,015
BUEKER KATHRYN · sell · $257,000
HARVEY DAWSON ALYSSA · sell · $179,416
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · sell · $4,014,295
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · exercise · $294,359
SHAH DHARMESH P · sell · $14,671,369
BUEKER KATHRYN · sell · $528,879
BUEKER KATHRYN · sell · $672,828
RANGAN YAMINI · sell · $1,705,486
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · sell · $4,752,435
HALLIGAN BRIAN P · exercise · $295,460
BUEKER KATHRYN · exercise · $193,342
WARD JILL A · award
GILL RONALD S · award
ANAGNOST ANDREW J · award
SIMONS JAY · award
NORRINGTON LORRIE M · award
CALDWELL NICHOLAS V. · award
JOHNSON CLAIRE D'OYLY-HUGHES · award
RANGAN YAMINI · sell · $69,794
SHAH DHARMESH P · sell · $15,520,292
BUEKER KATHRYN · sell · $1,424,150
BUEKER KATHRYN · exercise · $349,903
HARVEY DAWSON ALYSSA · sell · $124,800
HARVEY DAWSON ALYSSA · sell · $290,850
HARVEY DAWSON ALYSSA · exercise · $24,641
BUEKER KATHRYN · sell · $1,368,750
15 signals · latest 1d ago
Get alerted when HUBS changes direction
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