GPK Graphic Packaging Holding Company

bearish track record → $9.84 +0.29 (+3.0%) +0.0% since call
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Mkt Cap $3B P/E 6.6 fwd 7.3 52wk $8.79 - $25.81 2h ago
Insider selling: $11,778,626 sold by 16 insiders (30d)
Est. revisions: -15.8% (1 up, 2 down in 30d)
Next event: Upcoming event (est. 7–14% move)
Factor Model (net -2.3)

Factor Model

net -2.3 4.8 / 10
Est. Revisions
-0.8
Insider Activity
+0.0
Momentum
+0.0
Analyst Rev.
-0.6
Narrative Gap
+0.0

Einhorn Boosts GPK Stake 80%

Watch: Watch Q1 2026 earnings for signs of revenue growth acceleration or leverage changes to validate Einhorn's conviction.

David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital increased its GPK stake by 80% to 8.4 million shares in Q4 2025. GPK nears completion of a $1.67B greenfield mill in Waco, Texas, aimed at productivity gains. The company projects $700-$800 million adjusted free cash flow for 2026, driven by 70%+ revenue from essential food and beverage packaging and a shift toward fiber-based renewable packaging.

Einhorn's sizable buy signals confidence amid ongoing transformation and sustainability initiatives, positioning GPK to capitalize on growing demand for eco-friendly packaging and solid free cash flow outlook.

▼ $9.84 2026-04-19

Event Predictions

bearish Q1 2026 earnings release on 2026-04-30
12d

GPK likely to sell off on earnings; estimates cut 15.8%

+0.0% $9.84 → $9.84
Thesis

GPK faces a 50% sell-the-news probability with estimates revised down 15.8% and analyst downgrades (2 down vs 1 up in 30d) signaling deteriorating fundamentals. Insiders have sold $2.07M with zero buys in 90 days, and extreme bullish options positioning (P/C 0.02) is a contrarian sell signal. The stock is at its 52w high ($9.84) but in a downtrend, limiting upside and increasing reversal risk.

Evidence

2h ago PG&E Corporation (PCG): David Einhorn Is Buying This Stock yahoo-finance
Updated Wednesday Truist Securities main GPK: Hold → Hold
4d ago Citigroup main GPK: Neutral → Neutral
5d ago Wells Fargo main GPK: Underweight → Underweight
5d ago Insider buy by VENTURELLI LARRY M (GPK): $199,194
5d ago Insider buy by RIETBROEK ROBBERT (GPK): $501,099
45d ago This Fund Dumped $13 Million in Graphic Packaging Stock Amid 50% Share Slide and Slumping Profits yahoo-finance
55d ago This Fund Dumped $13 Million in Graphic Packaging Stock Amid 50% Share Slide and Slumping Profits yahoo-finance
Fundamentals & Data ▾
Graphic Packaging Holding Company Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
Mkt Cap
$3B
P/E
6.6 fwd 7.3
Beta
0.70
Div Yield
455.00%
52w Range
$8.79 - $25.81
Short Interest
39.5M 17.19%
Days to Cover
4.5 +15%
Technicals downtrend
from 52w Hi
0.0%
1w return
+1.8%
Insiders
selling 0B / 2S
Analysts
mixed
EPS Estimate
$0.06 -15.8% 30d 1up / 2dn
Est. Dispersion
33% 10 analysts
Analyst Target
$12 $8 - $21
Options P/C
0.02
Insider Cluster
strong buy 2B / 6S (officer)
Fund Convergence
strong D.E. Shaw, Renaissance, Two Sigma, Citadel, Bridgewater
Financials
Revenue
$2.1B +0% YoY
FCF
$407M
Gross Margin
14%
Op Margin
7%
Momentum: decelerating
Top Holders
D.E. Shaw $99M
Renaissance $19M
Two Sigma $18M
Citadel $18M
Bridgewater $2M
Recent Filings & Data
insider trade 64
net selling · $11,778,626 sold · $700,293 bought
16 insiders · 64 transactions (30d)
Recent transactions
FARRELL MICHAEL JAMES · other
VENTURELLI LARRY M · award
RHINEHART MARY K · award
SPENCE ELIZABETH · other
FALLAN SCOTT · other
RIETBROEK ROBBERT · buy · $501,099
VENTURELLI LARRY M · buy · $199,194
YOST JOSEPH P. · other
FARRELL MICHAEL JAMES · other
SPENCE ELIZABETH · other
FALLAN SCOTT · other
NARVEKAR NIKHIL · other
LISCHER CHARLES D · other
YOST JOSEPH P. · award
YOST JOSEPH P. · other
TASHMA LAUREN S. · award
TASHMA LAUREN S. · other
FARRELL MICHAEL JAMES · award
FARRELL MICHAEL JAMES · other
SPENCE ELIZABETH · award
SPENCE ELIZABETH · other
NARVEKAR NIKHIL · award
NARVEKAR NIKHIL · other
LISCHER CHARLES D · award
LISCHER CHARLES D · other
YOST JOSEPH P. · sell · $681,600
MARTENS PHILIP R · sell · $1,392,063
DOSS MICHAEL P · other
CALLAHAN ANDREW P · award
BRLAS MARY LAURIE · award
MARTENS PHILIP R · award
VENTURELLI LARRY M · award
SPENCE ELIZABETH · other
YOST JOSEPH P. · award
YOST JOSEPH P. · other
TASHMA LAUREN S. · award
TASHMA LAUREN S. · other
SCHERGER STEPHEN R. · award
SCHERGER STEPHEN R. · other
FARRELL MICHAEL JAMES · award
FARRELL MICHAEL JAMES · other
BIDLINGMAIER MARGIE KAY · award
BIDLINGMAIER MARGIE KAY · other
SPENCE ELIZABETH · award
SPENCE ELIZABETH · other
LISCHER CHARLES D · award
LISCHER CHARLES D · other
DOSS MICHAEL P · award
DOSS MICHAEL P · other
YOST JOSEPH P. · other
TASHMA LAUREN S. · other
SCHERGER STEPHEN R. · other
BIDLINGMAIER MARGIE KAY · other
SPENCE ELIZABETH · other
LISCHER CHARLES D · other
DOSS MICHAEL P · other
BIDLINGMAIER MARGIE KAY · other
YOST JOSEPH P. · award
LISCHER CHARLES D · sell · $355,800
FARRELL MICHAEL JAMES · sell · $750,841
DOSS MICHAEL P · sell · $8,434,425
VENTURELLI LARRY M · sell · $163,897
BRLAS MARY LAURIE · award
MARTENS PHILIP R · award
event: +0.0% | 8 signals · latest 2h ago

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