Factor Model (net +2.9)
Factor Model
net +2.9 5.0 / 10Q4 Beat Powers 11-Year High Backlog
Watch: Watch 2026 quarterly results for backlog velocity and new product mix. If the $312 million backlog converts at the guided pace while new products stay above 10% of backlog, that confirms the growth is durable and margin-accretive. Any slowdown in backlog growth would signal the cycle is stalling.
Forum Energy Technologies crushed Q4 estimates with adjusted EPS of $0.41 (beating by $0.05) and revenue of $202 million ($11.7 million ahead of forecast). The real story is the backlog — it hit $312 million, up 46% year-over-year and the highest in 11 years, with 12% coming from newly developed products. Management is guiding for 6% revenue growth and 16% EBITDA growth in 2026, backed by $80 million in free cash flow for full-year 2025.
A backlog at 11-year highs signals genuine demand momentum, not just analyst optimism. The fact that it's growing 46% YoY and features 12% from new products means FET isn't just pulling forward revenue — it's capturing incremental business from products still ramping. If they execute on 2026 guidance (6% top-line growth and 16% EBITDA expansion), they're expanding margins while growing, which is the profile of a company catching a genuine cycle.
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