F Ford Motor Company

bearish track record → $12.71 +0.55 (+4.5%) +0.0% since call
Mkt Cap $49B 52wk $9.20 - $14.80 Earnings beating 5h ago
We disagree with Wall Street. Analyst consensus: bullish. Our position: bearish. See factor model below for why.
What We Found Primary source analysis others skip
SEC Filing Changes
MEDIUM
New item added

Current filing specifically states "Ford s results are dependent on sales of larger, more profitable vehicles, particularly in the United States;" this was also mentioned in prior filing but the phrasing is more explicitly emphasized in the current.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-11
HIGH
NEW items added

Ford added a detailed risk factor about potential risks and uncertainties surrounding strategic alliances, joint ventures, acquisitions, divestitures, and business strategies. Key new language includes risks of integration difficulties, failure to realize anticipated benefits, delayed benefits, unforeseen expenses, misalignment of interests, limited control in joint ventures, potential reputational damage from third-party relationships, and risks related to new business strategies such as battery energy storage and alternative distribution models. This language was not present in the prior filing.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-11
HIGH
NEW items added

Ford added new detailed language around the risks related to restructuring actions, including strategic divestitures, ceasing operations, employee separations, plant closures, cancelling products or programs, etc. They noted risks of significant charges, disruptions, reputational harm, and potential claims or regulatory actions related to restructuring. This language is new and not reflected in the prior year's risk factors.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-11
MEDIUM
Items REMOVED

The prior filing contained a detailed risk factor describing cybersecurity risks, including ransomware attacks, security breaches, and disruption affecting operational information systems, vehicles, services, and supply chain. This entire cybersecurity-related risk factor is absent in the current filing.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-11
MEDIUM
Items REMOVED

The prior filing contained a detailed risk factor concerning risks from multi-year offtake agreements for raw materials used in electric vehicle batteries, pricing risk, risk of lower EV production, and financial exposure due to contractual obligations. This language is notably absent in the current filing, though related topics are briefly touched on differently in the new filing.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-11
MEDIUM
Material LANGUAGE CHANGES

Prior filing emphasized risks specific to multi-year raw material purchase contracts and EV battery production constraints. Current filing expands this to cover risks in strategic alliances, joint ventures, and supply relationships broadly, including sustainability efforts with suppliers and potential litigation or reputational impacts. The focus shifted from primarily raw material contract risk to broader commercial relationships.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-11
MEDIUM
New item added

Current filing expands the description to include more types of strategic initiatives: "existing or pending strategic alliances, joint ventures, acquisitions, divestitures, commercial relationships, or business strategies" as compared to prior filing which says "existing or pending strategic alliances, joint ventures, acquisitions, divestitures, or business strategies."

10-K · Filed 2026-02-11
Factor divergence: DIVERGENCE: price_momentum, analyst_revisions, narrative_gap bullish vs filing_risk_change bearish
Est. revisions: +2.8% (2 up, 0 down in 30d)
Next event: Upcoming event (est. 3–7% move)
Backed by structured data (insider trades, analyst ratings, or filings)

Factor Model

net +2.0 6.1 / 10
Est. Revisions
+0.2
Insider Activity
+0.0
Momentum
+0.6
Analyst Rev.
+1.0
Narrative Gap
+0.5
Filing Risk
+7.0

Ford bets $2B on batteries amid cost pressures

Watch: Upcoming Q1 earnings will show if Ford can turn rising costs into growth and capitalize on EV and battery storage investments.

Full analysis

Ford is investing $2 billion to build battery storage capacity with Ford Energy, aiming for 20 GWh annual capacity by 2027 after a Q4 2025 $11.1 billion EV writedown. Gasoline prices soared to $4.12 per gallon and oil surged past $104 per barrel, squeezing margins. CEO Jim Farley praises Ford's strong US manufacturing base with 83% vehicles assembled domestically, planning significant hiring. Tesla's FSD approval in the Netherlands hints at rising auto tech competition.

Ford's pivot to battery storage and US production strength provide strategic advantages despite margin pressure from high fuel and energy costs, supporting potential share gains in evolving markets.

$12.71 2026-04-14

Event Predictions

bullish Ford Q1 2026 earnings on 2026-04-29
15d

Ford beats lowered bar on insider confidence, modest upside

+0.0% $12.71 → $12.71
Thesis

Ford has a 75% beat rate with accelerating surprise momentum (avg +140.2%), and insiders are buying $2M+ ahead of earnings. Estimates have dropped 93.6% ($0.33 → $0.02), making the bar much easier to clear. Analysts are uniformly bullish (2 upgrades, 0 downgrades), and priced-in risk is low (0.15), suggesting limited negative expectations. While filing risk increased (4 new items, 2 high materiality) and 3m momentum is negative (-14.85%), the 40% sell-the-news probability is moderate and insider conviction outweighs these headwinds.

Compare

Evidence

7 older signals
10d ago F 10-K filing change: New risk factor added on strategic alliances, joint ventur
10d ago F 10-K filing change: New risk factor added on restructuring actions and associa
10d ago F 10-K filing change: Removal of cybersecurity and ransomware risk factors affec
10d ago F 10-K filing change: Shift in risk discussion from raw material contracts to br
10d ago F 10-K filing change: Additional risks related to strategic alliances, joint ven
Fundamentals & Data ▾
Ford Motor Company Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers
Mkt Cap
$49B
Beta
1.71
Div Yield
495.00%
52w Range
$9.20 - $14.80
Short Interest
39,177 0.0%
Days to Cover
0.0 -100%
Technicals uptrend
vs 20d MA
+7.8%
vs 50d MA
+0.2%
from 52w Hi
-11.9%
Vol (20d)
32%
1w return
+10.3%
1m return
+8.9%
3m return
-8.4%
Vol ratio
0.9x
Insiders
mixed 0B / 0S
Analysts
bullish 1 up / 0 down
Earnings
beating 3B / 1M
EPS Estimate
$0.18 +2.8% 30d 2up / 0dn
Est. Dispersion
173% 14 analysts
Analyst Target
$14 $10 - $18
Options P/C
0.64
Insider Cluster
buy cluster 2B / 2S
Fund Convergence
strong Renaissance, Two Sigma, Citadel, Bridgewater, D.E. Shaw
Financials
Revenue
$45.9B -5% YoY
FCF
$1.1B
Gross Margin
-19%
Op Margin
-25%
Momentum: decelerating
Top Holders
Renaissance $324M
Two Sigma $287M
Citadel $177M
Bridgewater $23M
D.E. Shaw $11M
Recent Filings & Data
filing change 7
MEDIUM New item added: Expanded discussion on dependency on sales of larger, more profitable vehicles in the U.S.
full analysis

Current filing specifically states "Ford s results are dependent on sales of larger, more profitable vehicles, particularly in the United States;" this was also mentioned in prior filing but the phrasing is more explicitly emphasized in the current.

HIGH NEW items added: New risk factor added on strategic alliances, joint ventures, acquisitions, divestitures, and business strategies.
full analysis

Ford added a detailed risk factor about potential risks and uncertainties surrounding strategic alliances, joint ventures, acquisitions, divestitures, and business strategies. Key new language includes risks of integration difficulties, failure to realize anticipated benefits, delayed benefits, unforeseen expenses, misalignment of interests, limited control in joint ventures, potential reputational damage from third-party relationships, and risks related to new business strategies such as battery energy storage and alternative distribution models. This language was not present in the prior filing.

HIGH NEW items added: New risk factor added on restructuring actions and associated risks.
full analysis

Ford added new detailed language around the risks related to restructuring actions, including strategic divestitures, ceasing operations, employee separations, plant closures, cancelling products or programs, etc. They noted risks of significant charges, disruptions, reputational harm, and potential claims or regulatory actions related to restructuring. This language is new and not reflected in the prior year's risk factors.

MEDIUM Items REMOVED: Removal of cybersecurity and ransomware risk factors affecting information systems and vehicles.
full analysis

The prior filing contained a detailed risk factor describing cybersecurity risks, including ransomware attacks, security breaches, and disruption affecting operational information systems, vehicles, services, and supply chain. This entire cybersecurity-related risk factor is absent in the current filing.

MEDIUM Items REMOVED: Removal of detailed risks related to long-term raw materials offtake agreements and fluctuating costs for electric vehic...
full analysis

The prior filing contained a detailed risk factor concerning risks from multi-year offtake agreements for raw materials used in electric vehicle batteries, pricing risk, risk of lower EV production, and financial exposure due to contractual obligations. This language is notably absent in the current filing, though related topics are briefly touched on differently in the new filing.

2 more
MEDIUM Shift in risk discussion from raw material contracts to broader supply chain and partnership risks.
MEDIUM Additional risks related to strategic alliances, joint ventures, acquisitions, divestitures, commerc...
insider trade 1
net selling
1 insider · 1 transactions (30d)
Recent transactions
ARAGON MICHAEL · other
analyst rating 4
UBS up → Buy 1d ago
Transcript analysis coming soon
bearish for 1d | event: +0.0% | 15 signals · latest 1h ago

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