Get emailed when CVNA changes direction
Insider selling: $640,478,518 sold by 14 insiders (30d)
Factor divergence:
DIVERGENCE: analyst_revisions bullish vs options_sentiment bearish
Est. revisions:
+2.3%
(4 up, 2 down in 30d)
Backed by structured data (insider trades, analyst ratings, or filings)
Factor Model (net +0.9)
Factor Model
net +0.9 2.6 / 10
Est. Revisions
+0.2
Insider Activity
+0.0
Momentum
+0.0
Analyst Rev.
+0.6
Narrative Gap
+0.0
Record revenue growth fuels valuation skepticism
Watch: Watch Q1 2026 guidance and whether margin expansion continues—if growth rates hold but profitability starts to flatten, that's the signal the stock's peaked. Hedge fund positioning bears watching too; further exits could accelerate the selloff.
Carvana crushed Q4 2025 with $5.6 billion in revenue—up 58% year-over-year—capping a monster year. Q3 saw 155,941 cars sold (+44% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA hit $637 million with an 11.3% margin, miles above industry norms. The stock's up 44% over 52 weeks, but last month it dropped 16%, and hedge fund ownership fell from 109 to 100 portfolios in Q4. The disconnect: hypergrowth metrics colliding with skepticism on valuation.
Carvana's moved from turnaround story to genuine profitable scale-up—those EBITDA margins and unit growth are the real deal in a traditionally thin-margin used-car market. But the recent stock pullback and hedge fund exits suggest the market's repricing; at $353.90 and a $74 billion market cap, the stock may've priced in most of the good news.
Evidence
7d ago
Insider sell by GARCIA ERNEST C II (CVNA): $36,019,859
7d ago
Insider sell by GARCIA ERNEST C II (CVNA): $35,110,238
7d ago
Insider sell by GARCIA ERNEST C II (CVNA): $35,962,630
7d ago
Insider sell by GARCIA ERNEST C II (CVNA): $42,468,910
7d ago
Insider sell by GARCIA ERNEST C II (CVNA): $28,700,639
7d ago
Insider sell by GARCIA ERNEST C II (CVNA): $33,193,812
7d ago
Insider sell by TAIRA THOMAS (CVNA): $10,000,000
7d ago
Insider sell by MAROONE MICHAEL E (CVNA): $12,381,668
7 older signals
7d ago
Insider sell by GILL DANIEL J (CVNA): $35,160,000
7d ago
Insider sell by TAIRA THOMAS (CVNA): $13,493,901
7d ago
Insider sell by HUSTON BENJAMIN EDWARD (CVNA): $17,580,000
7d ago
Insider sell by GILL DANIEL J (CVNA): $19,009,696
Fundamentals & Data ▾
Carvana Co.
Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships
Mkt Cap
$89B
P/E
45.9 fwd 38.1
Beta
3.61
52w Range
$203.50 - $486.89
Short Interest
15.5M 14.61%
Days to Cover
5.3 +17%
Technicals
downtrend
from 52w Hi
0.0%
1w return
+11.9%
Insiders
selling
0B / 14S
EPS Estimate
$1.49
+2.3% 30d
4up / 2dn
Est. Dispersion
116%
16 analysts
Analyst Target
$423
$300 - $519
Options P/C
1.76
Insider Cluster
strong sell
0B / 9S
Fund Convergence
strong
Citadel, Coatue, Renaissance, Elliott, D.E. Shaw
Financials
Revenue
$5.6B +58% YoY
FCF
$379M
Gross Margin
19%
Op Margin
8%
Momentum:
decelerating
Top Holders
Citadel
$3.1B
Coatue
$826M
Renaissance
$594M
Elliott
$448M
D.E. Shaw
$173M
Recent Filings & Data
insider trade
139
net selling
· $640,478,518 sold
14 insiders · 139 transactions (30d)
Recent transactions
TAIRA THOMAS · sell · $1,285,570
JENKINS MARK W · sell · $3,956,945
JENKINS MARK W · exercise · $223,738
HUSTON BENJAMIN EDWARD · sell · $3,098,592
HUSTON BENJAMIN EDWARD · exercise · $100,700
PALMER STEPHEN R · sell · $317,500
PLATT IRA J · exercise · $150,000
QUAYLE DAN · sell · $898,913
QUAYLE DAN · exercise · $43,500
TAIRA THOMAS · sell · $309,725
PLATT IRA J · other
JENKINS MARK W · sell · $4,120,173
HUSTON BENJAMIN EDWARD · sell · $3,226,678
PALMER STEPHEN R · sell · $324,840
TAIRA THOMAS · sell · $417,271
JENKINS MARK W · sell · $5,229,877
HUSTON BENJAMIN EDWARD · sell · $4,112,740
PALMER STEPHEN R · sell · $393,040
TAIRA THOMAS · sell · $524,778
JENKINS MARK W · sell · $5,138,482
HUSTON BENJAMIN EDWARD · sell · $4,019,361
PALMER STEPHEN R · sell · $419,480
BREAUX PAUL W · sell · $4,750,000
BREAUX PAUL W · exercise · $100,700
HUSTON BENJAMIN EDWARD · sell · $9,500,000
HUSTON BENJAMIN EDWARD · exercise · $201,400
TAIRA THOMAS · sell · $4,750,000
TAIRA THOMAS · exercise · $100,700
GILL DANIEL J · sell · $19,009,696
GILL DANIEL J · exercise · $603,125
PLATT IRA J · other
BREAUX PAUL W · sell · $8,770,000
BREAUX PAUL W · exercise · $91,848
HUSTON BENJAMIN EDWARD · sell · $17,580,000
HUSTON BENJAMIN EDWARD · exercise · $402,800
TAIRA THOMAS · sell · $13,493,901
TAIRA THOMAS · exercise · $201,400
GILL DANIEL J · sell · $35,160,000
GILL DANIEL J · exercise · $4,499,037
KEETON RYAN SCOTT · sell · $4,000,000
MAROONE MICHAEL E · sell · $12,381,668
MAROONE MICHAEL E · exercise · $463,920
TAIRA THOMAS · sell · $10,000,000
JENKINS MARK W · sell · $4,794,938
HUSTON BENJAMIN EDWARD · sell · $3,771,126
PALMER STEPHEN R · sell · $372,310
KEETON RYAN SCOTT · sell · $3,750,400
TAIRA THOMAS · sell · $3,750,100
KEETON RYAN SCOTT · sell · $3,500,000
SULLIVAN GREGORY B · sell · $850,000
KEETON RYAN SCOTT · sell · $3,250,300
TAIRA THOMAS · sell · $309,400
SULLIVAN GREGORY B · sell · $805,500
JENKINS MARK W · sell · $4,122,764
HUSTON BENJAMIN EDWARD · sell · $3,245,724
PALMER STEPHEN R · sell · $305,000
KEETON RYAN SCOTT · sell · $9,765,504
KEETON RYAN SCOTT · exercise · $583,130
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $1,022,938
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,656,041
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,703,438
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,720,701
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,005,159
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $820,045
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,937,569
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $2,396,508
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $1,494,100
JENKINS MARK W · sell · $4,963,240
BREAUX PAUL W · sell · $5,970,000
BREAUX PAUL W · exercise · $145,733
HUSTON BENJAMIN EDWARD · sell · $3,892,725
PALMER STEPHEN R · sell · $390,140
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,570,956
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $231,456
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $1,996,837
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $1,875,577
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,665,326
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $939,347
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $2,766,751
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,737,636
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,337,999
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $511,105
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,901,398
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,866,996
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,583,155
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $276,051
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,735,438
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,622,120
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,655,499
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $2,154,030
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $1,431,549
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,566,633
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,670,577
PLATT IRA J · sell · $5,307,960
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,717,208
BREAUX PAUL W · sell · $5,625,000
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,713,635
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,647,394
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,657,376
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,646,461
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,646,426
JENKINS MARK W · sell · $4,646,417
HUSTON BENJAMIN EDWARD · sell · $3,646,585
PALMER STEPHEN R · sell · $361,040
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,702,250
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,744,243
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,707,091
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,676,527
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,614,467
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,464,020
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $72,729
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,382,684
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $2,037,504
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $1,266,803
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,479,912
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,598,877
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,463,353
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,447,221
GARCIA ERNEST C II · sell · $33,193,812
GARCIA ERNEST C II · other
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,484,726
GARCIA ERNEST C II · sell · $28,700,639
GARCIA ERNEST C II · other
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,420,697
GARCIA ERNEST C II · sell · $42,468,910
GARCIA ERNEST C II · other
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,446,392
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,466,052
GARCIA ERNEST C II · sell · $35,962,630
GARCIA ERNEST C II · other
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,575,391
GARCIA ERNEST C II · sell · $35,110,238
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $3,521,242
BREAUX PAUL W · sell · $5,429,458
GARCIA ERNEST C II · sell · $36,019,859
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $1,066,797
GARCIA ERNEST C III · sell · $2,487,156
PLATT IRA J · award
PARIKH NEHA · award
15 signals · latest 7d ago
Get alerted when CVNA changes direction
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