Factor Model (net +1.3)
Factor Model
net +1.3 2.2 / 10BioCryst swings to $264M profit on $875M revenue surge
Watch: The 2026 Orladeyo sales guidance is the critical metric. If the ex-US product tracks to the high end of $645 million, the company has revenue cushion; miss and the core business deteriorates faster than this brief suggests. Also track whether management reinstates dividend payments or capital returns now that they've returned to GAAP profitability — a key signal of confidence in sustainable earnings.
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals flipped to profitability in 2025 with $263.86 million in net income, a dramatic reversal from an $88.88 million loss in 2024. Revenue exploded 94% to $874.8 million, though the headline number masks a crucial structural shift: the company banked $243.3 million from selling its European Orladeyo business to Neopharmed Gentili. Without that divestiture, the core profitability story looks different. Q4 alone delivered $245.8 million in net income and $406.5 million in revenue — tripling quarter-over-quarter — but 2026 guidance signals the real challenge ahead.
The profit swing is real and impressive, but it's heavily asset-sale dependent. For 2026, management expects $635–$660 million in revenue with Orladeyo accounting for $625–$645 million of that range — meaning the core business is essentially flat to slightly declining. This is a one-time earnings beat masking ongoing pressure on the base business. Investors celebrating the profit turnaround need to watch whether the remaining portfolio can sustain momentum without the windfall.
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