ARM Arm Holdings plc

bearish 2/4 shifts correct ↓ $353.29 +18.02 (+5.4%)
Mkt Cap $377B P/E 415.6 fwd 115.6 52wk $100.02 - $356.45 Earnings beating Updated Friday
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Avoided topics on last call (2025Q1): China licensing specifics, precise updated bookings guidance
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We disagree with Wall Street. Analyst consensus: bullish. Our position: bearish. See factor model below for why.
Insider selling: $44,237,416 sold by 11 insiders (30d)
Factor divergence: DIVERGENCE: estimate_revisions, analyst_revisions bullish vs price_momentum bearish
Est. revisions: +9.3% (18 up, 3 down in 30d)
Factor Model (net +1.3)

Factor Model

net +1.3 3.1 / 10
Est. Revisions
+0.6
Insider Activity
+0.0
Momentum
-1.0
Analyst Rev.
+0.9
Narrative Gap
+0.0

Arm rallies on AI upgrades, hits record highs

Watch: Next focus is Q2 earnings and deployment of Arm-based CPUs by key AI partners to confirm growth sustainability.

Arm shares surged 13.3% to around $342 on May 28, hitting a record intraday high of $349.42 on heavy analyst upgrades and AI infrastructure demand. Mizuho lifted its price target from $290 to $360 and Bernstein initiated coverage with an Outperform rating. Arm’s fiscal Q4 revenue rose 20% YoY to $1.49 billion, licensing revenue jumped 29%, while the stock gained 215% from its 52-week low of $100. ByteDance is exploring Arm-based CPUs for AI, fueling demand outlook.

Arm’s accelerating revenue growth and premium valuation reflect its key role in the AI CPU market, validating strong investor confidence despite high multiples and insider selling.

Evidence

Updated Saturday ARM and HOOD gain over 1 million reddit-wsb
Updated Friday Exclusive-ByteDance developing custom CPU chips to support AI rollout, sources say yahoo-finance
Updated Thursday Can Arm stock climb higher after fresh AI-driven analyst upgrades? - TradingView google-news-ai-infra
Updated Thursday Mizuho main ARM: Outperform → Outperform
4d ago Arm Surges as Nvidia's Vera Drives CPU Demand yahoo-finance
4d ago QCOM DD -- sex robots thesis reddit-wsb
6d ago ARM Targets the AI Data Center Opportunity With New AGI CPU Push - TradingView google-news-ai-infra
6d ago Arm Holdings (ARM) Soars 46% as Profits Seen Growing 5x yahoo-finance
7 older signals
8d ago Arm Holdings (ARM), Red Hat Expand Collaboration for Agentic AI Stack
8d ago AMC Entertainment, Nvidia, Arm Holdings And More: 5 Stocks Investors Couldn't Stop Buzzing About This Week
8d ago S&P Futures Gain as Bond Yields Fall, U.S.-Iran Updates Awaited
8d ago Indonesia trains young talent to build domestic chip industry - ANTARA News
9d ago Stocks Slip Before the Open as Oil Rises on U.S.-Iran Peace Deal Uncertainty, PMI Data in Focus
9d ago Quantum computing catalyst drives capital into semiconductor infrastructure leaders
10d ago TD Cowen Remains Bullish on Arm Holdings plc (ARM)
Fundamentals & Data ▾
Arm Holdings plc Technology · Semiconductors
Mkt Cap
$377B
P/E
415.6 fwd 115.6
Beta
3.41
52w Range
$100.02 - $356.45
Short Interest
18.8M 13.29%
Days to Cover
1.7 +18%
Technicals uptrend
vs 20d MA
+41.9%
vs 50d MA
+78.0%
from 52w Hi
0.0%
Vol (20d)
112%
1w return
+18.5%
1m return
+75.2%
3m return
+177.2%
Vol ratio
1.0x
Insiders
selling 0B / 9S
Analysts
bullish 1 up / 0 down
Earnings
beating 3B / 1M
EPS Estimate
$0.40 +9.3% 30d 18up / 3dn
Est. Dispersion
18% 29 analysts
Analyst Target
$234 $125 - $360
Options P/C
0.97 2C / 3P unusual
Insider Cluster
strong sell 0B / 5S
Fund Convergence
strong Citadel, Coatue, D.E. Shaw, Two Sigma, Bridgewater
Financials
Revenue
$1.5B +20% YoY
FCF
$170M
Gross Margin
98%
Op Margin
30%
Momentum: accelerating
Top Holders
Citadel $857M
Coatue $251M
D.E. Shaw $235M
Two Sigma $78M
Bridgewater $36M
Recent Filings & Data
insider trade 26
net selling · $44,237,416 sold
11 insiders · 26 transactions (30d)
Recent transactions
CHILD JASON E · award
ABBEY WILLIAM · sell · $703,386
COLLINS SPENCER · sell · $8,802,315
ABBEY WILLIAM · sell · $3,743,858
CHILD JASON E · sell · $7,231,157
EATON CHARLOTTE CLAIRE · sell · $2,263,520
EATON CHARLOTTE CLAIRE · sell · $1,913,055
ABBEY WILLIAM · sell · $1,336,125
EATON CHARLOTTE CLAIRE · award
GRISENTHWAITE RICHARD ROY · award
HAAS RENE A · award
COLLINS SPENCER · award
COLLINS SPENCER · sell · $11,001,747
ABBEY WILLIAM · award
GRISENTHWAITE RICHARD ROY · other
GRISENTHWAITE RICHARD ROY · sell · $5,090,502
JACOBS PAUL E · other
SOHN YOUNG K · other
CHILD JASON E · other
SCHOOLER ROSEMARY M · other
ABBEY WILLIAM · other
COLLINS SPENCER · other
EATON CHARLOTTE CLAIRE · other
SINE JEFFREY A. · other
BARTELS LAURA KATHLEEN · other
ABBEY WILLIAM · sell · $2,151,751
analyst rating 1
Bernstein init → Outperform 13d ago
Transcript Analysis (2025Q1) ▾

Management presents as confident and reasonably specific with some hedging mostly around macro uncertainties and licensing timing; a small number of direct questions were evaded, primarily regarding China-specific details and precise bookings updates.

Hedging
0.35
Confidence
0.75 (high)
Specificity
0.60
Active Voice
0.70
Prepared vs Q&A Gap
-0.10
Question Avoidance
2
Avoided Topics
China licensing specifics precise updated bookings guidance
Key Language Changes
  • Increased focus on AI as a growth driver and licensing momentum.
  • Repeated emphasis on v9 adoption and compute subsystems as key growth elements.
  • No unusual disclaimers or new legal language detected beyond standard forward-looking statements.
  • Management showing high confidence in growth despite some acknowledgment of industry inventory and economic uncertainties.
  • Deflection on China details, maintaining high-level commentary consistent with a cautious approach.
Track Record (2/4 correct) ▾

Direction History

2/4 correct at 5 days
2026-05-01 bearish +1.0% ✗
2026-04-17 bullish +40.8% ✓
2026-04-08 bullish +7.0% ✓
2026-04-07 bearish +12.1% ✗
Full track record across all stocks →
ⓘ ARM does not file 10-K/10-Q with the SEC
bearish for 1d | 15 signals · latest Updated Saturday

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