ARM Arm Holdings plc

neutral track record → $161.22 +3.64 (+2.3%)
Mkt Cap $158B P/E 201.3 fwd 69.6 52wk $95.32 - $183.16 Earnings beating Earnings 2026-05-06 4d ago
Avoided topics on last call (2026Q2): detailed product timeline for new compute subsystems and chiplets, duration and sustainability of related party revenues from SoftBank
Insider selling: $8,499,650 sold by 3 insiders (30d)
Est. revisions: -0.4%
Backed by structured data (insider trades, analyst ratings, or filings)

Factor Model

net -2.2 4.8 / 10
Est. Revisions
-0.0
Insider Activity
+0.0
Momentum
-0.9
Analyst Rev.
-1.0
Narrative Gap
+0.0

Morgan Stanley Downgrades ARM Amid Transition Risks

Watch: Q2 earnings will reveal progress on AI chip cost control, margin recovery, and the impact of supply constraints on ARM's expansion.

Full analysis

Morgan Stanley downgraded ARM to Equal Weight from Overweight, raising its price target to $150, citing the risky shift to developing AI-focused data center CPUs and soft demand headwinds. ARM dominates the smartphone chip market with its architecture embedded worldwide, but rival SiFive raised $400M to compete using RISC-V. Rising R&D costs and potential partner tensions cloud near-term growth despite ARM's ecosystem strength.

The pivot to chip manufacturing strains ARM's margins and partner relations, threatening to slow commercial growth despite a leading industry position and a $152B market cap.

Position history (6d) bull bear neutral
2026-03-26 2026-04-08
All 6 daily readings
2026-04-08 bearish · high 5sig
2026-04-06 bullish · high 4sig
2026-04-05 bullish · high 2sig
2026-03-28 bullish · high 8sig
2026-03-27 bullish · high 11sig
2026-03-26 bullish · high 10sig

Compare

Evidence

4d ago ARM 2026Q2: Revenues and royalties beat expectations on record AI-driven demand, strong Q3 guidance with robust growth in licensing and royalties
5d ago Goldman Sachs main ARM: Sell → Sell
7 older signals
Fundamentals & Data ▾
Arm Holdings plc Technology · Semiconductors
Mkt Cap
$158B
P/E
201.3 fwd 69.6
Beta
3.34
52w Range
$95.32 - $183.16
Short Interest
14.7M 10.56%
Days to Cover
3.9 -14%
Technicals uptrend
vs 20d MA
+10.3%
vs 50d MA
+21.6%
from 52w Hi
-11.8%
Vol (20d)
83%
1w return
+5.9%
1m return
+36.9%
3m return
+41.0%
Vol ratio
0.7x
Insiders
selling 0B / 4S
Analysts
bullish 3 up / 1 down
Earnings
beating 3B / 1M
EPS Estimate
$0.58 -0.4% 30d 0up / 2dn
Est. Dispersion
14% 28 analysts
Analyst Target
$168 $95 - $240
Options P/C
0.54
Insider Cluster
strong sell 0B / 3S
Fund Convergence
strong Citadel, Coatue, D.E. Shaw, Two Sigma, Renaissance
Financials
Revenue
$1.2B +26% YoY
FCF
$181M
Gross Margin
98%
Op Margin
15%
Momentum: accelerating
Top Holders
Citadel $857M
Coatue $251M
D.E. Shaw $235M
Two Sigma $78M
Renaissance $52M
Recent Filings & Data
insider trade 4
net selling · $8,499,650 sold
3 insiders · 4 transactions (30d)
Recent transactions
CHILD JASON E · sell · $3,157,314
HAAS RENE A · sell · $5,131,328
Haas Rene A. · sell · $32,630
Haas Rene A. · sell · $178,378
earnings 4
EPS 0.55 (est 0.52362) · +0.1%
EPS 0.35 (est 0.3511) · -0.0%
EPS 0.39 (est 0.33134) · +0.2%
EPS 0.43 (est 0.40919) · +0.1%
transcript 1
2026Q2 · 4837 words
read transcript
Jeff Kvaal (VP, Investor Relations): Thank you, Sharon, and welcome, everyone, to our earnings conference call for the second quarter of fiscal '26. On the call are Rene Haas, Arm's Chief Executive Officer; and Jason Child, Arm's Chief Financial Officer. During the call, Arm will discuss forecasts, targets, and other forward-looking information regarding the company and its financial results. While these statements represent our best current judgment about future results and performance, our actual results are subject to many risks and uncertainties that could cause results to differ materially. In addition to any risks that we highlight during this call, important risk factors that may affect our future results and performance are described in our registration statement on Form 20-F filed with the SEC. Arm assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. We will refer to non-GAAP financial measures during the discussion. Reconciliations of certain of these non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in our shareholder letter as can a discussion of projected non-GAAP financial measures that we are not able to reconcile without unreasonable efforts and supplemental financial information. Our earnings-related materials are on our website at investors.arm.com. And with that, I'll turn the call to Rene. Rene? Rene Haas (CEO): Thank you, Jeff, and welcome, everyone. We continued fiscal year 2026 with strong momentum, fueled by accelerating demand for AI compute from milliwatts in the smallest of edge devices to megawatts in the world's largest hyperscale data centers. Artificial intelligence is reshaping every layer of technology and Arm is the only compute platform delivering AI everywhere. Q2 is our best second quarter ever, with revenue of $1.14 billion, up 34% year-on-year, marking our third consecutive billion-dollar quarter. Royalty revenue reached a record $620 million, up 21% year-on-year, driven by growth in all major markets, including data center, smartphones, automotive, and IoT. Unprecedented compute demand has led to our data center Neoverse royalties more than doubling year-on-year. Licensing revenue rose 56% to $515 million as companies continue choosing Arm to build their next-generation AI products. Our strong results lifted non-GAAP EPS above the high end of guidance. During the quarter, we announced a strategic partnership with Meta to scale AI efficiency across every layer of compute from AI-enabled wearables to AI data centers on a consistent compute platform. This partnership combines Arm's leadership in energy-efficient compute with Meta's innovation in AI infrastructure and open technologies to deliver richer, more efficient AI experiences to billions of people worldwide. In the data center, access to power has now become the bottleneck, accelerating the adoption of Arm's Neoverse compute platform, which has now surpassed 1 billion CPUs deployed. Our compute forms the foundation of custom silicon from leading partners, including NVIDIA Grace, AWS Graviton, Google Axion, and Microsoft Cobalt. For example, Google's Arm-based Axion chip delivers up to 65% better price performance while using 60% less energy. As a result, Google is migrating the majority of their internal workloads to run on Arm. Customers are increasingly deploying Arm Neoverse CPUs alongside their AI accelerators to orchestrate massive clusters, highlighting the versatility and scalability of our platform. The addition of 5 new Stargate sites this quarter further expands visibility into future AI capacity and reinforces Arm's central role in the hyperscale build-out. As AI chip design becomes more complex, our compute subsystems, or CSS, are helping customers accelerate their development cycles and reduce execution risk. Demand for CSS continues to exceed expectations. During the quarter, we signed 3 new CSS licenses; 1 each in smartphone, tablets, and data centers, bringing our total to 19 CSS licenses across 11 companies. We also expanded our collaboration with Samsung, which is leveraging CSS for its Exynos family of chipsets, driving up to 40% AI performance over the previous non-CSS generation. As a result, the top 4 Android phone vendors are now shipping CSS-powered devices. CSS has quickly become the starting point for customers building next-generation silicon, offering faster time to market and delivering higher royalty rates for Arm. In the quarter, we also launched Lumex CSS, our most advanced mobile compute platform to date. Lumex enables rich on-device AI experiences such as real-time translation, image enhancement, and personal assistance. Flagship devices from partners like OPPO and vivo are expected to ramp later this year, bringing console-quality performance and new AI capabilities directly to mobile devices. At the edge, AI is transforming how people interact with their devices in their hands, homes, and vehicles. Google launched the ... [transcript truncated at 5,000 chars — full text available via API]
analyst rating 14
Morgan Stanley down → Equal-Weight 8d ago
Needham up → Buy 20d ago
Raymond James up → Outperform 21d ago
HSBC up → Buy 26d ago
Transcript Analysis (2026Q2) ▾

Management communicates with high confidence and specificity, employs moderate hedging mainly on future product details, and shows mostly direct answers with minimal evasions.

Hedging
0.15 (low)
Confidence
0.85 (high)
Specificity
0.75 (high)
Active Voice
0.80
Prepared vs Q&A Gap
-0.10
Question Avoidance
2
Avoided Topics
detailed product timeline for new compute subsystems and chiplets duration and sustainability of related party revenues from SoftBank
Key Language Changes
  • Emphasis on power constraints as strategic opportunity
  • Repeated highlighting of AI as core growth driver
  • New emphasis on strategic partnership with SoftBank and OpenAI in Stargate project
  • Cautious language about new product launches and timelines
  • Focus on R&D investment acceleration
Track Record (0/1 correct) ▾

Direction History

0/1 correct at 5 days
2026-04-07 bearish +12.1%
ARM does not file 10-K/10-Q with the SEC
15 signals · latest 4d ago

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