ADT ADT Inc.

bearish track record → $6.93 -0.04 (-0.6%)
Mkt Cap $5B P/E 9.2 fwd 7.2 52wk $6.25 - $8.94 87d ago
Insider buying: $376,166 bought by 4 insiders (30d)
Est. revisions: -3.4%
Factor Model (net -2.0)

Factor Model

net -2.0 5.3 / 10
Est. Revisions
-0.2
Insider Activity
+0.0
Momentum
-0.5
Analyst Rev.
-1.0
Narrative Gap
+0.0

Q4 miss and flat 2026 revenue guidance

Watch: Watch Q1 2026 system sales trends to see if volume pressure stabilizes or accelerates. If churn rises or new customer adds stay weak, the pricing lever runs out of room.

ADT missed on both lines in Q4, reporting revenue of $1.27 billion against expectations of $1.29 billion and EPS of $0.17 versus the $0.21 consensus. Sales of monitoring security systems declined, though the company offset some of the pain with price increases. For 2026, management guided to flat revenue and EPS growth — a cautious outlook that suggests the volume pressure isn't easing.

Flat revenue guidance in a business built on recurring monitoring contracts signals weak customer acquisition or retention. The lone bright spot is a targeted 20% jump in adjusted free cash flow, but without top-line momentum, ADT's pricing power may be masking deeper demand issues.

Evidence

11d ago Insider buy by MILLER KIMBERLY (ADT): $25,049
17d ago Insider buy by HOUSTON DANIEL JOSEPH (ADT): $250,412
17d ago Insider buy by KHAN OMAR (ADT): $50,080
17d ago Insider buy by AHMAD FAWAD (ADT): $50,625
48d ago Insider buy by SCOTT DAVID A (ADT): $49,056
77d ago Analysts React To ADT Inc’s (ADT) Earnings Report yahoo-finance
77d ago Analysts React To ADT Inc’s (ADT) Earnings Report yahoo-finance
89d ago Earnings live: Best Buy stock jumps despite softer holiday demand, Target stock rises yahoo-finance
Fundamentals & Data ▾
ADT Inc. Industrials · Security & Protection Services
Mkt Cap
$5B
P/E
9.2 fwd 7.2
Beta
1.07
Div Yield
314.00%
52w Range
$6.25 - $8.94
Short Interest
30.4M 6.2%
Days to Cover
3.8 +4%
Technicals downtrend
vs 20d MA
-0.8%
from 52w Hi
-7.7%
Vol (20d)
32%
1w return
+2.0%
1m return
-3.7%
Vol ratio
0.7x
Insiders
buying 4B / 0S
EPS Estimate
$0.22 -3.4% 30d 0up / 4dn
Est. Dispersion
6% 5 analysts
Analyst Target
$8 $7 - $9
Options P/C
0.85
Insider Cluster
strong buy 4B / 0S (officer)
Fund Convergence
strong Two Sigma, Bridgewater, Renaissance, Citadel
Financials
Revenue
$1.3B +1% YoY
FCF
$499M
Gross Margin
81%
Op Margin
26%
Momentum: accelerating
Top Holders
Two Sigma $24M
Bridgewater $15M
Renaissance $9M
Citadel $2M
Recent Filings & Data
insider trade 4
net buying · $376,166 bought
4 insiders · 4 transactions (30d)
Recent transactions
AHMAD FAWAD · buy · $50,625
KHAN OMAR · buy · $50,080
HOUSTON DANIEL JOSEPH · buy · $250,412
MILLER KIMBERLY · buy · $25,049
8 signals · latest 11d ago

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