AA Alcoa Corporation

bullish · high conviction track record → $59.65
Mkt Cap $19B P/E 16.8 fwd 11.8 52wk $22.68 - $75.70 Earnings 2026-04-16 3h ago
Insider selling: $1,009,431 sold by 19 insiders (30d)
Est. revisions: +27.6% (5 up, 0 down in 30d)
Factor Model & Position History (net +3.2)

Factor Model

net +3.2 5.7 / 10
Est. Revisions
+1.0
Insider Activity
+0.0
Momentum
+0.2
Analyst Rev.
+1.0
Narrative Gap
+0.0

Morgan Stanley Upgrades AA on Aluminum Price Spike

Watch: Monitor the duration of the Strait of Hormuz disruptions, as extended delays could further raise aluminum prices and earnings forecasts for Alcoa.

Full analysis

Morgan Stanley upgraded Alcoa (AA) to 'Overweight' after raising aluminum price forecasts 13% for 2026 amid ongoing Middle East supply disruptions. This lifted EBITDA and EPS estimates by 41% and 52% respectively. Alcoa's Q4 2025 revenue fell slightly to $3.45 billion from $3.49 billion YoY, with EPS at $0.85, missing the $0.93 consensus but still up 11.8%.

Higher aluminum prices amid supply disruptions boost Alcoa's earnings power substantially, underpinning a shift to more bullish analyst sentiment and a sustained margin expansion potential.

Evidence

3h ago Higher Aluminum Prices Are a Win for Alcoa Stock, Says Morgan Stanley. Should You Buy AA Here? yahoo-finance
11d ago Copper-Aluminum Divergence Unveils The Complex Iran War Impact yahoo-finance
16d ago Alcoa Surges 11% After Iran Claims Aluminum Plant Attacks benzinga
16d ago Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Fannie Mae, Boston Scientific, Blackstone, Palo Alto Networks and more cnbc-finance
21d ago A Plunge in Aluminum Futures Sends Alcoa Stock Below Its 50-Day Moving Average. Should You Buy the Dip? yahoo-finance
25d ago 1 Little-Known Stock to Buy to Bet on Mine-Sweeping Tech in the Strait of Hormuz yahoo-finance
30d ago Aluminum At Highs As Supply Squeeze Boosts Alcoa Outlook benzinga
33d ago Alcoa Corporation (AA) Focuses On Deals With Data Center Industry yahoo-finance
2 older signals
41d ago Middle East Conflict Ignites Aluminum, Resurfaces Domestic Issues
41d ago Pre-market Overview of U.S. Stocks | Spillover from U.S.-Iran conflict! All three major futures indices dropped over 1%; oil and defense stocks active in pre-market trading, Occidental Petroleum and Lockheed Martin surged over 6%; The AES Corp plummeted 1 - 富途牛牛
Fundamentals & Data ▾
Alcoa Corporation Basic Materials · Aluminum
Mkt Cap
$19B
P/E
16.8 fwd 11.8
Beta
1.70
Div Yield
55.00%
52w Range
$22.68 - $75.70
Short Interest
6.9M 2.64%
Days to Cover
1.0 -4%
Technicals downtrend
vs 20d MA
-2.7%
vs 50d MA
-1.2%
from 52w Hi
-9.2%
Vol (20d)
50%
1w return
-3.9%
1m return
+2.6%
3m return
+35.3%
Vol ratio
1.2x
Insiders
mixed 0B / 0S
EPS Estimate
$1.51 +27.6% 30d 5up / 0dn
Est. Dispersion
54% 8 analysts
Analyst Target
$72 $42 - $96
Options P/C
1.10
Fund Convergence
moderate Citadel, D.E. Shaw
Financials
Revenue
$3.4B -1% YoY
FCF
$294M
Gross Margin
17%
Op Margin
-3%
Momentum: accelerating
Top Holders
Citadel $298M
D.E. Shaw $16M
Recent Filings & Data
insider trade 50
net selling · $1,009,431 sold
19 insiders · 50 transactions (30d)
Recent transactions
OPLINGER WILLIAM F · award
BEERMAN MOLLY S. · award
JONES TAMMI A · award · $6,340
BACCHI RENATO · award
JONES TAMMI A · award · $2,608
OPLINGER WILLIAM F · award
BEERMAN MOLLY S. · award
JONES TAMMI A · award
BACCHI RENATO · award
HASTINGS ANDREW · award
HENRY RENEE · award
REED MATTHEW T · award
JONES TAMMI A · award · $19,204
WILLIAMS STEVEN WALTER · award · $31,835
CITRINO MARY ANNE · award
ZEDILLO ERNESTO · award
HUGHES JAMES ALTON · award
ROBERTS CAROL L · award
DE OLIVEIRA MARQUES ROBERTO · award
FIORE PASQUALE · award
GORMAN THOMAS JOSEPH · award
ROBERTS JACKSON PRINCE · award
FIELD ALISTAIR · award
BEVAN JOHN A · award
WILLIAMS STEVEN WALTER · award · $76,223
OPLINGER WILLIAM F · award
BEERMAN MOLLY S. · award
JONES TAMMI A · award · $6,148
BACCHI RENATO · award
HASTINGS ANDREW · award
HENRY RENEE · award
GAGSTETTER NICOL · award
REED MATTHEW T · award
JONES TAMMI A · award · $9,057
JONES TAMMI A · award · $3,256
WILLIAMS STEVEN WALTER · award · $76,228
BACCHI RENATO · sell · $1,009,431
WILLIAMS STEVEN WALTER · award · $76,225
FIELD ALISTAIR · award
BEVAN JOHN A · award
WILLIAMS STEVEN WALTER · award · $76,242
CITRINO MARY ANNE · award
ZEDILLO ERNESTO · award
HUGHES JAMES ALTON · award
ROBERTS CAROL L · award
DE OLIVEIRA MARQUES ROBERTO · award
FIORE PASQUALE · award
WILLIAMS STEVEN WALTER · award
GORMAN THOMAS JOSEPH · award
ROBERTS JACKSON PRINCE · award
ⓘ Filing analysis pending — next scan runs every 12 hours
ⓘ Transcript analysis coming soon
10 signals · latest 3h ago

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