TREX Earnings
Thursday, May 07 2026
EPS Estimate
$0.51
$0.48 – $0.54
Revenue Estimate
$340M
Current Price
$42.18
Our Position
bearish · highAnalyst upgrade collides with insider selling and guidance cuts
structured data
est. revisions stable
(-0.3pp / 30d)
This is a structural headwind, not a temporary miss that an analyst price target can solve. When insiders and major shareholders bail despite a buy rating, they're signaling expectations worse than consensus. Margin compression and slower housing trends suggest Trex's cyclical exposure will persist through 2026 unless repair-remodel demand stabilizes—and there's no near-term catalyst to justify Loop Capital's thesis.
Watch: Q1 2026 guidance and repair-remodel comparables are the next inflection point. If management cuts again, the stock could spiral further as the analyst thesis crumbles. If housing stabilizes and margins hold, Loop Capital's upside call gains credibility—but insider selling is the red flag that deserves more weight than one upgrade.
Data Signal Summary
1 bullish
2 bearish
Insider buying cluster
Put/call 16.9 (bearish skew)
Price downtrend
Key Context
Insider Activity
mixed
Price Trend
downtrend
From 52w High
-3.1%
P/E Ratio
23.7
Est. Revisions (30d)
-0.5% 0up/1dn
Analyst Target (mean)
$48 $35–$58 +14%
Options P/C Ratio
16.86 0C/1P unusual
Est. Dispersion
12% 19 analysts
Insider Cluster
strong buy (officer)
Fund Convergence
strong D.E. Shaw, Citadel, Two Sigma, Renaissance, Bridgewater
Recent Activity
insider trades
67 transactions
Award
·
KEFFER DAVID CHRISTIAN (Director)
·175 shares
·$6,400
Award
·
ROSE B. ANDREW (Director)
·700 shares
·$25,599
Buy
·
ROSE B. ANDREW (Director)
·12,380 shares
·$503,560
Award
·
FAIRBANKS BRYAN HORIX (Chief Executive Officer)
·9,609 shares
·$398,005
Award
·
FERNANDEZ AMY M (Officer)
·1,910 shares
·$79,112
62 more
Award
·
RUDOLPH JACOB T
·1,250 shr
·$51,775
Award
·
ZAMBANINI ADAM DANTE
·3,623 shr
·$150,065
Award
·
GANDHI PRITHVI
·45,790 shr
·$1,897,996
Award
·
FERNANDEZ AMY M
·20,362 shr
·$844,005
Award
·
RUDOLPH JACOB T
·12,642 shr
·$524,011
Award
·
ZAMBANINI ADAM DANTE
·37,828 shr
·$1,567,971
Award
·
TASI IRENE
·1,256 shr
·$55,000
Award
·
KEFFER DAVID CHRISTIAN
·178 shr
·$6,378
Award
·
ROSE B. ANDREW
·225 shr
·$8,062
Award
·
ROSE B. ANDREW
·1,578 shr
·$55,025
Buy
·
GANDHI PRITHVI
·15,000 shr
·$478,840
Award
·
GANDHI PRITHVI
·15,664 shr
·$499,995
Award
·
FERNANDEZ AMY M
·29,198 shr
·$932,000
Award
·
MCDUFFIE MELKEYA
·49 shr
·$2,545
Award
·
KEFFER DAVID CHRISTIAN
·123 shr
·$6,389
Other
·
FERNANDEZ AMY M
·78 shr
Sell
·
FERNANDEZ AMY M
·1,538 shr
·$98,711
Award
·
VOLAS GERALD
·1,812 shr
·$120,009
Award
·
JUSTER KRISTINE L
·1,812 shr
·$120,009
Award
·
LOVETT GENA C.
·1,812 shr
·$120,009
Award
·
MCDUFFIE MELKEYA
·1,812 shr
·$120,009
Award
·
KEFFER DAVID CHRISTIAN
·1,584 shr
·$104,908
Award
·
ROBINSON PATRICIA B
·1,812 shr
·$120,009
Award
·
CLINE JAMES EARL
·1,812 shr
·$120,009
Award
·
GRATZ JAY M
·1,812 shr
·$120,009
Award
·
KAPLAN RONALD W
·1,812 shr
·$120,009
Buy
·
RUDOLPH JACOB T
·66 shr
·$3,890
Award
·
MCDUFFIE MELKEYA
·44 shr
·$2,538
Award
·
KEFFER DAVID CHRISTIAN
·111 shr
·$6,402
Sell
·
RUDOLPH JACOB T
·1,500 shr
·$90,410
Sell
·
FERNANDEZ AMY M
·2,366 shr
·$144,734
Award
·
MCDUFFIE MELKEYA
·43 shr
·$2,514
Award
·
KEFFER DAVID CHRISTIAN
·109 shr
·$6,372
Award
·
FAIRBANKS BRYAN HORIX
·10,064 shr
·$620,848
Sell
·
MCDUFFIE MELKEYA
·1,420 shr
·$87,872
Award
·
FERNANDEZ AMY M
·2,003 shr
·$123,565
Award
·
LOVCIK BRENDA
·130 shr
·$8,020
Award
·
RUDOLPH JACOB T
·1,306 shr
·$80,567
Award
·
ZAMBANINI ADAM DANTE
·3,789 shr
·$233,743
Award
·
FAIRBANKS BRYAN HORIX
·56,974 shr
·$3,836,059
Award
·
FERNANDEZ AMY M
·10,302 shr
·$693,634
Award
·
LOVCIK BRENDA
·14,467 shr
·$974,063
Award
·
RUDOLPH JACOB T
·6,388 shr
·$430,104
Award
·
ZAMBANINI ADAM DANTE
·18,318 shr
·$1,233,351
Buy
·
RUDOLPH JACOB T
·49 shr
·$3,640
Award
·
MCDUFFIE MELKEYA
·37 shr
·$2,554
Award
·
KEFFER DAVID CHRISTIAN
·185 shr
·$12,771
Other
·
FAIRBANKS BRYAN HORIX
·330 shr
Sell
·
RUDOLPH JACOB T
·1,372 shr
·$107,126
Award
·
MCDUFFIE MELKEYA
·38 shr
·$2,574
Award
·
KEFFER DAVID CHRISTIAN
·96 shr
·$6,503
Award
·
KEFFER DAVID CHRISTIAN
·863 shr
·$55,016
Award
·
VOLAS GERALD
·1,569 shr
·$120,028
Award
·
JUSTER KRISTINE L
·1,569 shr
·$120,028
Award
·
LOVETT GENA C.
·1,569 shr
·$120,028
Award
·
MCDUFFIE MELKEYA
·1,569 shr
·$120,028
Award
·
ROBINSON PATRICIA B
·1,569 shr
·$120,028
Award
·
CLINE JAMES EARL
·1,569 shr
·$120,028
Award
·
GRATZ JAY M
·1,569 shr
·$120,028
Award
·
KAPLAN RONALD W
·1,569 shr
·$120,028
Award
·
MCDUFFIE MELKEYA
·35 shr
·$2,543
Sell
·
RUDOLPH JACOB T
·16,440 shr
·$1,494,472
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