Earnings · MELI
MELI

MELI Earnings Preview

MercadoLibre, Inc. · Consumer Cyclical · $95B

14d until earnings

Our Call

bearish · medium Full prediction →

MELI earnings miss on estimate cuts, insider selling pressure

Expected move: 6–12% from event-day close

Full thesis

MELI faces a bearish earnings setup despite recent bullish headlines. Estimates have been revised down 12.6% with 0 analyst upgrades and 6 downgrades in 30 days, signaling deteriorating expectations. Insiders are net selling $2.4M (4 sells vs 1 buy), suggesting they are not accumulating ahead of earnings. The stock is trading at 52w high (P/E 47.2) with limited upside surprise room, and the sell-the-news probability is 50%. The bullish narrative from Jefferies and BTIG is not backed by formal analyst revisions, creating a narrative gap that typically resolves downward on earnings.

MELI Earnings

Thursday, May 07 2026
EPS Estimate
$9.10
$6.98 – $11.64
Revenue Estimate
$8.3B
Current Price
$1854.18

Our Position

bullish · high

Jefferies Upgrades MELI Despite Lower Targets

structured data est. revisions rising (+4.5pp / 30d)

Despite margin compression and short-term operating income pressure, sustained strong revenue growth and analyst upgrades signal confidence in MercadoLibre's long-term expansion and market position.

Watch: Watch Q1 2026 results for margin trajectory and execution against growth expectations amid market concerns.

Data Signal Summary

1 bullish
2 bearish
Estimates down -13% Insider selling cluster Put/call 0.7 (bullish skew)

Key Context

Analyst Consensus
mixed
Insider Activity
selling
Price Trend
mixed
1-Month Return
+11.2%
From 52w High
-1.0%
P/E Ratio
47.2
Est. Revisions (30d)
-12.6% 0up/6dn
Analyst Target (mean)
$2458 $1827–$3500 +33%
Options P/C Ratio
0.66
Est. Dispersion
53% 10 analysts
Insider Cluster
strong sell
Fund Convergence
strong Citadel, D.E. Shaw, Renaissance, Bridgewater

Recent Activity

insider trades 17 transactions
Buy · MELAMUD MARCELO (Officer) ·57 shares ·$100,079
Sell · DUBUGRAS HENRIQUE VASONCELOS (Director) ·845 shares ·$1,713,778
Sell · CALEMZUK EMILIANO (Director) ·45 shares ·$91,232
Sell · TOLDA STELLEO PASSOS (Director) ·246 shares ·$503,778
Award · TOLDA STELLEO PASSOS (Director) ·8 shares
12 more
Award · CALEMZUK EMILIANO ·64 shr
Award · AGUZIN ALEJANDRO NICOLAS ·64 shr
Award · SANDERS RICHARD A ·64 shr
Award · LAWSON MARTIN R ·64 shr
Sell · CALEMZUK EMILIANO ·50 shr ·$99,249
Award · CALEMZUK EMILIANO ·75 shr
Award · VAZQUEZ MARIO EDUARDO ·75 shr
Award · AGUZIN ALEJANDRO NICOLAS ·75 shr
Award · DUBUGRAS HENRIQUE VASONCELOS ·75 shr
Award · SANDERS RICHARD A ·75 shr
Award · PETRONI MERHY ANDREA MAYUMI ·75 shr
Award · SEGAL SUSAN L ·75 shr
analyst ratings 2 ratings
Cantor Fitzgerald →Overweight 1d ago
Barclays →Overweight 2d ago

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full analysis → Our calls → Earnings calendar →

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